$SPCX Just buy $1,000 worth, focus on participation #我的Gate交易时刻 ‌ (SpaceX) In-depth Analysis — The Largest IPO in History

IPO Key Data
Code: SPCX (Nasdaq), $135/share, ~555.6 million shares, Raising $75 billion
Valuation: $1.77 trillion (fully diluted $1.8T+), P/S 95x
Time: Listed on 6/12, priced on 6/11, filed S-1 on 5/20
Underwriters: Goldman Sachs / Morgan Stanley / JPMorgan / Bank of America / Citigroup, 21 banks in syndicate
Financial Triple Crown (2025)
🟢 Starlink (Connectivity): Revenue $11.4 billion (+50%), Operating profit $4.42 billion, Profit margin 38.8% — The only money printer
🟡 Space (Launch + Starship): Operating loss -$657 million — Strategic loss
🔴 AI (xAI): Operating loss -$17.7k, Q1 2026 loss $2.469 billion, Capital expenditure $7.7 billion (annualized $30 billion+) — The money-consuming beast
Consolidated Financials
2025: Revenue $18.67 billion, Net loss -$4.94 billion, Adjusted EBITDA +$6.58 billion
Q1 2026: Revenue $4.69 billion, Net loss -$4.28 billion (worsening rapidly)
Morningstar DCF valuation: $780 billion (less than half of IPO)
Governance Risks
Elon Musk controls 85.1% of voting rights (AB share structure)
No dividends, related-party transaction risks, xAI fully driven by Musk
Long Position Logic
✅ Starlink money printer (50% growth, 38.8% profit margin) ✅ Launch global monopoly (70% market share) ✅ AI imagination (xAI with 100k GPUs) ✅ Musk effect (Tesla IPO increased 24x) ✅ No comparables = unlimited valuation potential

Short Position Logic
❌ P/S 95x is outrageous ❌ xAI burning $30 billion annually, IPO of $75 billion only lasts 2.5 years ❌ Governance = private empire ❌ Macro headwinds (interest rate hike expectations) ❌ Lock-up period risks (very low cost for old shareholders)

Strategy
🟡 No IPO subscription, no chasing on first day, wait 2-4 weeks

Long: Stabilize above $135 and good Q2 data, enter at $125-135, stop loss at $115
Short: Break below $120 and Q2 disaster, but R:R not sufficient
Related tickers: RKLB, ASTS, observe SPCX effect on TSLA
Risks: Musk faith stocks, traditional valuation methods not applicable, max 0.5-1% position