#SpaceX认购规模超2500亿美元 SpaceX IPO will trigger a truly massive storm in the market!!

Analysts say that tech stocks and cryptocurrencies are experiencing a "typical liquidity tightening before a giant IPO," leading to sell-offs.
SpaceX will begin trading tomorrow, June 12, on NASDAQ under the ticker SPCX, with an initial price of $135 per share, targeting a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion to $1.8 trillion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history, planning to raise about $75 billion.
Most retail investors only see the wealth stories built on Elon Musk, space, and AI hot concepts, rushing to raise funds to subscribe, defaulting to this as a blind profit-making investment opportunity. But a few core questions are rarely deeply considered:
Why can a company with annual revenue of only $18.7 billion support a valuation of $1.75 to $2 trillion?
Only 5% of the shares are available for trading in this IPO, with the remaining 95% concentrated among insiders; what kind of selling pressure cycle will form after listing?
Historically, similar highly pursued giant tech IPOs have experienced deep corrections early on; will this IPO replicate that pattern?
With tech and digital assets declining simultaneously, is this a short-term liquidity squeeze caused by funds pulling out early to participate in SpaceX’s subscription?
Well-known short seller Michael Burry has publicly warned of bubbles in space and AI sectors—what practical logic underpins his short positions?
This article relies entirely on publicly available prospectuses, investment bank data, and third-party research reports for objective analysis, avoiding panic-mongering or exaggerated gains, and thoroughly outlining the chain reaction of this trillion-dollar IPO across all asset classes, providing ordinary investors with a set of reference standards and operational ideas.

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**1. Core data of this SpaceX IPO, all from official disclosures**
**1.1 Listing basic information**
Listing date: June 12, 2026, on NASDAQ, with final pricing determined on June 11
Stock code: SPCX, planned issue price $135
Shares issued: 555.6 million, with a base fundraising scale of $75 billion, potentially up to $86.25 billion after over-allotments
Overall valuation range: $1.75 trillion – $1.8 trillion, far exceeding Saudi Aramco’s previous record of $29.4 billion, setting a new global IPO scale record

**1.2 Equity structure and key risks of free float**
Only about 4.2%–5% of shares will be freely tradable, with extremely scarce market liquidity; 95% of shares are held by founders, executives, and early institutional investors.
The shareholding structure adopts dual voting rights: Musk holds high-vote Class B shares, maintaining over 84% of voting rights after listing, preventing external public investors from participating in core decision-making.
Lock-up period rules: only a small amount of old shares can be traded shortly after listing; by November of the same year, 93% of insider holdings will be fully unlocked, with all unrealized gains on the books available for cashing out.
Static estimate: at an $1.8 trillion valuation, insiders hold assets exceeding $1.6 trillion on paper, the largest stockpile of unrealized gains in market history.

**1.3 Real market enthusiasm for subscription**
Total demand: $250 billion, against a $75 billion fundraising target, with nearly 4x oversubscription; large hedge funds and global asset managers have submitted bulk orders.
Multiple overseas digital asset trading platforms have launched SPCX derivatives in advance; within 18 days, derivatives traded a total of $2.1 billion, covering users in 130 countries;
Decentralized platform Hyperliquid’s derivatives traded $70 million in 24 hours, with open interest of $115 million.
Derivative market expectations are divided: decentralized derivatives trading price is $157, below the initial hype high of $210, indicating early divergence of capital.

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**2. Horizontal comparison: Meta’s 2012 IPO retrospective, highly overlapping with current market patterns**
**2.1 Market consensus at that time**
Before Meta (Facebook) went public in 2012, it was also a tech giant widely pursued by retail investors, who believed the long-term prospects were highly certain, with continuous stock price growth expected after listing, leading to a flood of market funds into subscriptions.

**2.2 Actual post-listing performance data**
Meta’s IPO price was $38; on the first day, it barely rose 0.61%, lacking sustained buying support; within 100 trading days, the stock fell over 70%, only recovering to IPO price after 14 months.

**2.3 Two highly consistent underlying commonalities of these IPOs**
Market sentiment was overly heated before listing, with media and institutions collectively bullish, downplaying valuation risks;
Free float was extremely low, with a large portion of original shares concentrated among founders and early investors;
Retail investors were the main secondary market buyers, with internal shareholders cashing out large assets through listing;
The company’s revenue scale was insufficient to justify a trillion-dollar valuation, with long-term growth expectations overextended into the next decade.

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**3. Fundamental analysis: $1.8 trillion valuation faces significant performance realization pressure, supported by data**
**3.1 Latest consolidated financial data for SpaceX (full year 2025)**
Total revenue: $18.7 billion, with three main business segments clearly differentiated:
Starlink satellite internet: $11.4 billion revenue, 63% EBITDA margin, the only profitable segment, contributing 61% of total revenue, with over 12 million active users globally;
Rocket launch business: about $4.1 billion revenue, still operating at a loss, with large-scale Starship R&D continuously increasing capital expenditure;
AI subsidiary xAI: large losses throughout the year, with Q1 2026 capital expenditure reaching $7.7 billion, continuously consuming cash flow generated by Starlink.

**3.2 Valuation benchmarking and growth pressure estimates**
Using Samsung, a global manufacturing leader, as a benchmark:
SpaceX: valuation $1.8 trillion, revenue $18.7 billion
Samsung Group: valuation $850 billion, revenue $230 billion
To match the valuation logic of $1.8 trillion, third-party estimates suggest:
The company must maintain a 50% compound annual revenue growth rate over the next ten years; any quarter’s performance below expectations could trigger a valuation reassessment.
Sustained high growth over ten years involves multiple uncontrollable risks: satellite launch failures, saturation of global internet users, ongoing large losses in AI R&D, tightening satellite regulations worldwide—no guarantee of stable growth.

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**4. Macro impact: A trillion IPO causes widespread liquidity tightening, with three asset classes most affected**
Multiple financial research institutions agree:
The liquidity squeeze before a giant IPO is not just a single negative catalyst but a phase of asset rotation driven by cross-asset capital transfer.

**4.1 Complete logic of capital withdrawal**
Global institutional and individual investors, to participate in SpaceX’s high subscription, are collectively reducing existing holdings for cash, prioritizing selling high-volatility, elastic risk assets:
High-beta US tech stocks: semiconductors, small/mid-cap AI growth stocks—short-term capital outflows are evident, with indices declining consecutively;
Digital asset markets: retail participation is highest, with total market cap evaporating $180 billion last week, experiencing the largest liquidity shock;
Small/mid-cap growth stocks: capital is flowing into primary market new issues with certainty, with existing stocks lacking new capital inflows.

**4.2 Objective analysis by institutional analysts**
Bitrue Research Director’s view: The simultaneous decline in tech and digital assets is a typical IPO tax; in the short term, it’s just capital rotation, not a sign of a long-term bear market. However, market volatility will significantly amplify in the two weeks before and after listing.

**4.3 Short-term vs. medium-long-term divergence**
Short-term (early to mid-June): liquidity continues to tighten, risk assets oscillate downward, and funds focus on SPCX subscription;
Medium-long-term (3 to 6 months post-listing): internal shareholder lock-up releases gradually, market returns to fundamentals-based valuation, and valuation bubbles are absorbed through performance.

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**5. Well-known short seller Michael Burry’s complete warning logic, supported by actual short positions**
**5.1 Core viewpoints and analysis**
Michael Burry, known for accurately predicting the 2000 dot-com bubble and 2008 subprime crisis, publicly warned on social platforms and columns:
Adjusted for inflation, the combined fundraising scale of top three companies—SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic—will equal the total IPO funds raised by 300 top US tech firms in 2000, indicating that the hype in space and AI sectors is comparable to late-stage internet bubble.

**5.2 Practical shorting strategies, not just verbal warnings**
Burry has established large short positions in Palantir and Nvidia, two core AI stocks, using hedging to counteract the overall AI sector valuation bubble, with actual capital actions confirming his market judgment.

**5.3 Core risks**
Currently, the market is only hyping long-term stories in space and AI, ignoring three major risks:
- Continuous large capital expenditures and valuation overreach;
- Overstretched future earnings expectations;
- Large-scale unlocking of original shares creating selling pressure.
If market sentiment shifts, rapid collective sell-offs could occur.

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**6. Two hidden long-term risks of this IPO, easily overlooked by ordinary investors**
**6.1 Large-scale liquidation risk of original shareholders**
Initially, the free float is scarce, and new stocks tend to surge temporarily; but by November, the lock-up expiration will release over a trillion dollars of original shares into free trading.
Market capacity to absorb such a scale is limited, leading to sustained selling pressure, potentially mirroring Meta’s long-term decline after listing, with high-entry retail investors bearing valuation correction losses.

**6.2 Overhyped sector narratives and minimal performance tolerance**
When valuing SpaceX, the market has already priced in long-term benefits like Starlink’s global adoption, Starship’s commercialization, and AI profitability.
If any of these progress less than expected, institutions will lower valuation targets immediately, with no buffer; growth-oriented tech companies tend to see larger valuation corrections than traditional manufacturing or consumer firms.

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**7. Recommendations**
Avoid participating in primary market subscriptions at high premiums; retail allocations are costly and lack cost-effectiveness under oversubscription.
Do not go all-in on highly volatile assets during this liquidity-tight cycle; reduce positions to hedge against short-term volatility.
Wait until the lock-up period ends in November, and valuations return to reasonable levels, then consider entry based on quarterly earnings.
Monitor two key indicators: quarterly new Starlink users and overall free cash flow—only when both improve continuously should long-term positions be considered.
Avoid high-volatility windows around listing and lock-up expirations; stagger your entries, and do not concentrate positions all at once.
Distinguish clearly between short-term hype and long-term fundamentals—do not chase after initial surges; control leverage, as market volatility will amplify during liquidity tightening, increasing the risk of large losses.

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**8. Summary: Objectively view the largest IPO in history, differentiate sector opportunities from valuation bubbles**
Space internet and general AI are long-term growth sectors; SpaceX’s Starlink has achieved stable profitability, and the industry’s long-term logic is fundamentally sound.
The $1.8 trillion valuation is driven by market sentiment and hot narratives, already overestimating growth for the next decade, with short-term price correction likely.
The extremely low 5% free float and over a trillion dollars of original shares unlocking pose the biggest potential risks—similar structures have historically led to deep corrections after listing.
Currently, declines in tech and digital assets are short-term liquidity squeezes caused by funds withdrawing to subscribe to new stocks; expect continued volatility until mid to late June.
Ordinary investors should not be swept up in market frenzy; abandon short-term wealth dreams, wait for valuation, float, and performance metrics to normalize before investing.
No sector guarantees absolute gains; even the most promising industries must match real revenue and cash flow.
The June 12 trillion-dollar IPO marks a major reallocation point for funds—every market participant should prepare for risks in advance.
The above analysis is for reference only and not investment advice!!!