Trump Makes a Threat: If We Don’t Sign an Agreement, I’ll Bomb Iran! Vance Reveals He’s Talking at the Same Time with Both Moderates and Hardliners

Trump makes a statement in the war room, saying that if Iran does not sign the ceasefire agreement, they will "blow it to pieces" tomorrow night. Vice President Pence also revealed that the U.S. is simultaneously dealing with two factions of Iran.
(Background summary: Draft of US-Iran peace agreement leaked! US military withdraws in exchange for "lifting the blockade on the Hormuz Strait," causing crude oil to plummet below $89)
(Additional background: Trump states: "Today, the US military will strike Iran hard," causing US stocks to crash to today's low)

Table of Contents

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• Trump: Has directly spoken with Iranian officials
• Pence's "dual-front" strategy
• Chain reaction of Strait blockade: Iran closes the strait + US bombing
• New developments in enriched uranium: IAEA passes resolution
• Market interpretation

On Thursday (June 11), while in the White House war room, Trump was asked how the U.S. would respond if Iran refused to sign the ceasefire, and he directly set the condition: "If they don't sign, we'll blow them to bits tomorrow night. This is the most serious ceasefire violation in world history."

Vice President Pence also added that the U.S. is actually dealing with two fronts at the negotiation table: "During negotiations, we are simultaneously engaging with both moderate and hardline factions within Iran."

Trump: Has directly spoken with Iranian officials

Trump also stated that he has had direct communication with Iranian officials, but Iran denies any contact between the two sides. This suggests that the progress of US-Iran negotiations may still be advancing in parallel, but their mutually recognized "channels of contact" have not yet aligned.

Pence's "dual-front" strategy

Pence's mention of "fighting both moderates and hardliners simultaneously" implies that the U.S. does not view Iran as a single decision-making entity. Middle East analysts believe this aligns with Trump's negotiation style: applying pressure through military threats (bombing threats) while also engaging diplomatically with moderate factions inside Iran to ensure agreements can be implemented outside the war room.

Previously, CBS News live coverage reported that Trump issued commands to multiple staff members in the war room, indicating that the final version of the US-Iran agreement is still being adjusted, including clauses on uranium enrichment and strait passage.

Chain reaction of Strait blockade: Iran closes the strait + US bombing

According to Reuters, Iran announced on Wednesday that it would close the Hormuz Strait, stopping all vessel traffic. The U.S. immediately launched a new round of bombings, airstriking Iran's southern Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and Sirik ports. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated by attacking U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, as well as two ships in the Hormuz Strait.

CNBC reports that Trump has claimed at least 30 times over the past three months that "an agreement is imminent." However, CNBC analysis points out that the stock market and oil prices have responded to each claim, even though the agreement has not yet been finalized. Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Investment Trust, described: "The market has been hoping this will end at any moment, any moment, any moment."

New developments in enriched uranium: IAEA passes resolution

Aside from the ongoing conflict, Iran's nuclear program is also progressing. On June 10, Eastern Time, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors passed a resolution demanding Iran report its uranium enrichment stockpile. According to the UK government, the UK, US, France, and Japan jointly stated that Iran's uranium stockpile has increased to levels comparable to nuclear explosive grade, emphasizing that this will still impact the final terms of the peace agreement.

Market interpretation

The Middle East situation affects Taiwan not only through crude oil prices. Taiwan's exports of petrochemical products (PVC, styrene, etc.) to the Middle East account for about 8% of total exports. Al Jazeera cited data indicating that the blockade of the Hormuz Strait has pushed Brent crude oil above $89 per barrel, a roughly 15% increase from early April when the ceasefire was reached. If the strait remains closed for more than a week, Taiwan's oil import prices will also follow, potentially bringing inflationary pressures earlier.

It is also noteworthy that this conflict has accelerated energy diversification among Asian countries. South Korea and Japan began increasing oil imports from outside the Middle East in early June. Taiwan's CPC also adjusted its inventory strategy, shifting some sources to North American and North Sea fields. This means that even if a ceasefire agreement is ultimately signed, the energy landscape in Asia may have irreversibly changed.