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Breaking news, gold! Gold! Downward momentum is still strengthening
The core suppressing factors are not weakening, but rather continuing to intensify:
· Rate hike expectations: May non-farm data far exceeded expectations, the market's bets on Fed rate hikes in 2026 are heating up, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen, directly suppressing non-yielding assets like gold
· Middle East situation: The Strait of Hormuz has re-entered a blockade state, rising oil prices further boost inflation expectations, inflation → rate hikes → pressure on gold chain remains effective and is self-reinforcing
· Institutional consensus: Nanhua Futures' latest judgment clearly states that under the repeated Middle East situation, no easing signals in monetary policy, and even rising rate hike expectations, precious metals lack further upward momentum
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⚠️ Potential Risks
· Technical oversold rebound: RSI has fallen to the 20-30 range, short-term rebound demand exists
· Sudden risk aversion sentiment: If there is a major escalation in the Middle East, it may temporarily trigger a gold rebound
· Central bank continued gold purchases: The Chinese central bank continued to increase gold holdings last month, providing support for medium- to long-term bulls
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📊 Mid-term bearish outlook: 3900 or 3500?
Depends on the upcoming key events:
· If the Middle East situation remains unchanged, gold prices are expected to gradually stabilize around $3,900. Citi's Q3 target price ($4,000) is an important reference point, and 3900 is a reasonable and foreseeable mid-term bottom.