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If the principal is 7 BTC, how to play through the bull and bear markets in Bitcoin-based trading?
Thought process:
Pure long-term: Open a 0.73 BTC long position at 56,666, about 75,000 contracts, 18x leverage.
Take profit at 74,000 for a 3.1 BTC profit;
At 82,000 for a 4.0 BTC profit;
At 96,000 for a 5.42 BTC profit;
At 106,000 for a 6.15 BTC profit.
Account balance: 6.27 BTC, forced liquidation at 38,726.
If you only take a one-time profit from a 50,000-point increase, with no small waves or rolling positions in between, the profit can only double.
If during the 50,000-point rise, you take partial profits and make corrections every 12,000-15,000 points, and add positions during corrections of 60,000-8,000 points, then the profit can generally increase by 1.5 times.
To grasp the following four stages of the 2027-2028 bull and bear crossing, you can relax in advance:
1. When the BTC weekly MACD starts climbing above zero, from below zero to above zero forming the first golden cross, the price has generally doubled.
Operation tip: Add positions while climbing above zero.
2. After the weekly MACD climbs above zero, just before the fast and slow lines form the first golden cross, the first major upward wave is about to begin, with a profit potential of 50,000 points, and full profit-taking is possible.
Operation tip: Add positions before the golden cross forms. For example, on April 6, I saw the weekly golden cross was about to form, so I bought long for four consecutive weeks in April. Of course, April's situation is below the zero line, which is not comparable to the golden cross above the zero line.
3. Correction wave for adding positions: After the first major upward wave gains 50,000 points, it usually retraces about 25,000 points. Re-enter the market with 0.73 BTC * 18x leverage.
4. Second major upward wave: After the correction wave completes, the second upward wave begins, generally with a rise of 50,000-60,000 points.
This stage usually occurs within 180 days of the Bitcoin halving date, initiating a nearly half-year-long bullish trend.
At this point, add 1x position for every 3,000 points of unrealized profit, then take partial profits and add positions each time it rises another 3,000 points, rolling positions in one direction.
During this phase, short positions are strictly not recommended; doing so will inevitably incur losses because there are almost no pullbacks.
In this step, most traders can achieve financial freedom.
By mastering these four steps of the bull and bear crossing, by 2028 you can relax, and 7 BTC can multiply 4-5 times as a conservative estimate.
The big bull in 2029 can be ignored; the higher the position, the greater the volatility, making it unsuitable for coin-based trading.
Switch to USDT-based short-term trading.
Then, hold 20-30 BTC in spot, sell high during the bull, and sell 1 BTC to exchange for USDT to play around with USDT-based trading.