Technical Outlook: XRP Testing Cycle Lows — Bears Remain Firmly in Control

XRP continues to trade under heavy selling pressure after losing multiple key support levels and breaking down from its recent consolidation structure. Price is now hovering just above the major macro support zone around $1.00–$1.10, while the broader trend remains decisively bearish.

Although XRP is approaching an area that could trigger a short-term relief bounce, the overall market structure continues to favor sellers until higher resistance zones are reclaimed.

📈 EMA Structure (Strongly Bearish)

20 EMA: $1.228

50 EMA: $1.311

100 EMA: $1.402

200 EMA: $1.608

Price trading below all major EMAs ❌

20 EMA acting as immediate dynamic resistance

50 & 100 EMA continue capping recovery attempts

200 EMA remains the major macro trend barrier

👉 XRP must reclaim the EMA cluster before any meaningful bullish reversal can be considered.

📐 Fibonacci & Structure

Price remains below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $1.566

Macro descending channel remains intact

Recent market structure shift confirms bearish continuation

Multiple support zones have failed throughout the decline

👉 Any relief rally could target:

$1.12–$1.18 → Immediate resistance zone

$1.23 → 20 EMA resistance

$1.31 → 50 EMA resistance

$1.57 → 0.236 Fibonacci resistance

👉 Failure to hold current support could expose:

$1.00 psychological and structural support

$0.90–$0.85 liquidity zone

Potential continuation toward lower historical demand areas

🧠 ICT / Smart Money View

Recent decline swept significant sell-side liquidity beneath range support

Bearish market structure remains intact

Multiple failed recovery attempts suggest distribution rather than accumulation

Overhead Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain unfilled

No bullish displacement or confirmed market structure break visible

👉 Smart money flow continues favoring sellers until XRP can reclaim higher supply zones and invalidate the current bearish structure.

📉 RSI Momentum

RSI (14): 28

Near oversold territory ⚠️

Momentum remains weak despite temporary stabilization

Seller dominance continues across higher timeframes

👉 Oversold conditions may support a short-term bounce, but do not yet signal a trend reversal.

📊 Key Levels

🔴 Resistance

$1.12–$1.18 → Immediate resistance zone

$1.23 → 20 EMA

$1.31 → 50 EMA

$1.57 → 0.236 Fibonacci

🟢 Support

$1.00 → Critical macro support

$0.90–$0.85 → Major liquidity zone

Below $0.85 → Increased downside risk

📌 Final Outlook

XRP remains locked in a strong downtrend, trading beneath all major EMA and Fibonacci resistance levels while testing a critical macro support region.

✅ Reclaim & hold above $1.12–$1.18 → opens recovery path toward $1.23 → $1.31

✅ Break above $1.57 → improves medium-term structure

❌ Loss of $1.00 support → increases probability of continuation toward $0.90–$0.85 and lower liquidity zones

👉 Overall structure remains strongly bearish. While RSI is approaching oversold conditions and could support a temporary relief bounce, bulls must reclaim the $1.12–$1.18 region before any larger recovery scenario becomes credible. Until then, sellers remain firmly in control of the trend.

$XRP ‌