Last Wednesday, U.S. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded products (ETPs) experienced outflows for the 13th consecutive trading day, marking the longest outflow period since these products launched in January 2024.

During these 13 trading days, the related products have seen a total outflow of $4.33 billion (approximately 60k Bitcoins). Based on rolling 20-day data, the outflow reached $5.42 billion (about 73k Bitcoins), setting a record for the largest 20-day outflow in history. Last week also marked the fourth consecutive week of net outflows for these products.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has fallen below $64k for the first time since February, down 49% from the all-time high of $124,824 set on October 6, 2025. Comparing this decline to previous historical peaks, Bitcoin’s price performance over the past 240 days is highly similar to past high points.

Galaxy Research’s Fear and Greed Index dropped to 13, entering the “Extreme Fear” zone, the lowest reading of the year. (This index combines on-chain transaction data, derivatives trading, valuation, profit-taking, and ETF fund flow data).

Our View

Current Bitcoin market sentiment has fallen to multi-year lows. After the November 2024 U.S. elections, going long on Bitcoin was the most popular trading strategy worldwide. However, now, amid the massive influx of AI-related trading activity, Bitcoin is no longer the focus of global investors.

Last year, many analysts believed that Bitcoin’s iconic four-year cycle would not recur. This judgment was based on factors including: the diminishing supply shock from the four-year halving events, a significant narrowing of market volatility, continuous inflows into passive ETFs, and Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high before the halving for the first time.

However, data shows that the 2024–2026 cycle remains highly similar to previous cycles. In the past three cycles, starting from October six months before the halving, it took between 403 and 441 days for the market to reach its all-time high, while this cycle took 370 days.

In the previous three cycles, after reaching the last all-time high, the market bottomed out within 12 to 13 months (354 to 406 days). With 240 days passed since the current cycle’s all-time high, if the pattern fully repeats, the market’s final bottom is likely to occur in the fourth quarter of this year.

Setting aside the underlying causes, the similarity of the cycles objectively exists, and it’s not just in terms of time. Several core indicators have shown consistent patterns across the first three cycles, and in 2026, these patterns reappear: CVDD, realized price, realized market cap, on-chain activity, staking lock-up rate, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), reserve risk, market cap / realized market cap ratio (MVRV), spent output profit ratio (SOPR), as well as Mayer multiples and Puell multiples—all currently exhibiting characteristics similar to those seen at the peak and subsequent retracement phases of previous bull markets. Here are some examples...

Bitcoin has been declared “completely collapsed” at least 472 times, yet it always endures. Even if Bitcoin’s price drops to $30k, it remains twice the low point of the last bear market. Most investors entering at this price level are long-term holders who believe Bitcoin is digital gold, and the number of such investors and their holdings have been growing with each cycle. If Bitcoin can officially transform from a “risk asset” into widely recognized digital gold, these investors have played a crucial role.

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