My SpaceX Subscription Review and Market Outlook

Unknowingly, I have written so much already. For this final piece, I want to do a review and outlook, sharing my personal thoughts on SpaceX's future market performance.

First, the conclusion: I think SpaceX will most likely rise on its first day of listing, but don’t expect it to soar like some “miracle stocks.” Why? Because its size is simply too large—$1.8 trillion in market capitalization. Doubling that would require an influx of $180 billion, which is no small feat. Barron’s published an article titled “A $1.8 Trillion Billion-Dollar IPO Is Hard to Succeed,” which captures this logic perfectly.

In the short term, there are several catalysts worth paying attention to:

First is inclusion in indices. Just 15 trading days after listing, SpaceX will be included in the Nasdaq 100 index. Passive funds will then buy about 10% to 15% of the circulating shares. This means that within two or three weeks after listing, there will be a wave of passive capital entering, providing support for the stock price.

Second is retail investor sentiment. The 30% retail allocation set a record. In the current market environment, retail investors’ pricing power can no longer be ignored. Previously, meme stocks could be driven to the sky; this time, SpaceX’s story is much more solid than GameStop’s, and retail enthusiasm will only be higher.

But risks are equally present:

First, overvaluation is already a consensus. Even SpaceX’s own financial data shows the company is still operating at a loss. If the post-list financial reports fail to meet market expectations, the stock price could experience a sharp correction.

Second is the pressure from unlocking restricted shares. A large amount of insider holdings will be gradually unlocked in the future. If Elon Musk or other early investors start to sell, it will put downward pressure on the stock.

My strategy is simple: participate in the subscription with a small position first, then observe for a few days after listing before deciding whether to add more. If I can get around $135, holding long-term for 5 to 10 years, I believe SpaceX will become a wealth story for a generation. But if it surges to $200 or $300 on the first day, that would be crazy—better to miss out than chase the high.

Finally, the old saying still applies: investing involves risks, and decisions depend on yourself. I wish everyone can buy their desired SPCX! See you in the comments! #SpaceX認購規模超2500億美元