On June 10th, Barclays Global Equity Tactical Strategy Head Alex Altmann stated in a podcast that he has shifted his view on U.S. stocks to a short-term tactical cautious stance. Alex Altmann had been contrarian and bullish last September, and in March this year when the Iran conflict erupted, he still called for holding positions, both of which were ultimately validated. But what triggered his recent change was a series of signals accumulated over the past two weeks: a sharp rise in financing costs pushing up real yields, which is compressing stock valuation multiples; retail investor enthusiasm reaching levels even higher than in 2021, when the environment was deeply negative real interest rates, whereas now it is positive real interest rates; and almost no short positions from institutional investors. Altmann pointed out: when enthusiasm reaches this level, the forward return curve of the S&P 500 no longer looks favorable.

Altmann expressed particular concern about leveraged ETFs, as these products may drive disproportionate stock trading volume through their underlying channels during daily rebalancing, creating a self-reinforcing upward and downward spiral, a phenomenon that has persisted over the past few weeks. The resurgence of momentum trading makes crowded positions highly susceptible to sharp corrections triggered by small position adjustments or shifts in narrative. Altmann estimates that the S&P 500 will experience a cumulative pullback of about 6% to 7%, with the recent decline already more than halfway through the process. To turn bullish again, he hopes to see further declines in stock prices to dispel euphoria, well-absorbed large IPOs by the market, and a decline in real yields. If the new Federal Reserve Chair can verbally suppress real yields and provide reassurance, it would also be a tailwind for the market. #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX