#SpaceX認購規模超2500億美元

The final pricing estimate for SpaceX (stock ticker: SPCX) is $135 per share, while market bullishness presents polarized and intense debates. Although this historic largest IPO has garnered over $250 billion in subscription interest, Musk broke with Wall Street tradition by adopting a "fixed price" strategy before the roadshow and bookbuilding. Therefore, the final price set on June 11 is not expected to be adjusted upward but will remain at $135 per share.

The detailed analysis of pricing specifics and bullish potential is as follows: 📊 The core fixed offering price for final valuation: $135 per share. SpaceX rarely sets a "price range" and instead provides a single fixed price, leaving investors to accept or reject. Implied initial valuation: Approximately 556 million Class A common shares are expected to be issued, with an initial market cap of about $1.75 trillion to $1.77 trillion. This means it will directly become one of the top 10 publicly traded companies in the U.S. on its first trading day. Compared to private market premiums: The price during private market equity transfers in December 2025 (after a 5-for-1 stock split on May 1, 2026, bringing the price to about $84 per share) shows that the $135 offering price represents a 61% premium within just half a year.

🚀 How big is the bullish potential? The market's polarized views are driven by the initial limited liquidity after the June 12 listing (100% new shares issued, existing shareholders not cashing out, Musk imposing a 366-day lock-up period). SPCX's post-market performance is sparking fierce battles between bulls and bears:

🟢 Bullish reasons: Passive fund outflows and the rapid inclusion of "Aerospace + AI" faith into indices: According to Nasdaq's quick inclusion mechanism, such mega IPOs are expected to be included in the Nasdaq-100 index within 15 trading days of listing. At that point, hundreds of billions of dollars in passive index funds will be forced to buy blindly, which will be independent of fundamentals, providing strong support and upward momentum for the stock price. Three major engines' explosive power: Roadshow documents emphasize that SpaceX has transformed from a simple rocket launch company into an empire driven by three engines: "rocket infrastructure," "Starlink satellite network," and the newly acquired "xAI artificial intelligence." The market generally views it as an "AI tech stock" rather than a traditional aerospace company, which greatly expands valuation imagination. Extreme oversubscription: Facing demand of 3.5 to 4 times, when institutional investors do not receive enough allocation, the unmet funds are very likely to rush into the secondary market on the first day of trading to buy and cash out, potentially causing significant profit-taking pressure in the early days.

🔴 Bearish warning: Overvaluation and broker wariness. Institutional analyst warnings: A well-known rating agency, Morningstar, previously analyzed that SpaceX's reasonable valuation should be around $780 billion, and the current $1.75 trillion valuation is severely overestimated. Some aggressive bearish analysts even believe that the stock price could be cut in half after listing to reach a more reasonable level. Short-selling forces and profit-taking: According to Bloomberg, Jefferies and other non-underwriting brokerages are actively preparing short-selling channels for investors who are pessimistic about SpaceX, and are ready to assist lucky shareholders in quickly offloading shares during the first few days of listing. This could exert heavy profit-taking selling pressure on the stock in the initial trading period.