Morgan Stanley responds to SemiAnalysis's yesterday's crash of the US stock market with a brief note: agrees that the CPO's short-term volume increase is below expectations, and mass production of 800V is progressing as scheduled

Mars Finance News, June 10 — Morgan Stanley responded today to the SemiAnalysis research report that triggered a major decline in U.S. stocks yesterday. They agree with SemiAnalysis's view that CPO short-term volume growth is below expectations, but still remain optimistic about explosive growth in CPO after 2028. They also explicitly refuted the claim that 800V mass production has been delayed until 2028, with supply chain research showing that 800V cabinets will still be advanced as planned in the second half of 2026. Yesterday, independent research firm SemiAnalysis released a report stating that two key technological paths for AI data centers have experienced significant delays, which is considered one of the main reasons for the major correction in AI industry stocks in U.S. equities yesterday.

In the CPO direction, Morgan Stanley and SemiAnalysis have similar judgments — their estimates show that global optical engine shipments in 2027 will only be 6 to 7 million units, far below the market consensus of 20 to 30 million units. The core constraints come from TSMC’s SoIC yield of only 50%-60% and downstream assembly yields as low as 20%-50%, creating manufacturing bottlenecks. Short-term sentiment will remain under pressure; however, Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on core CPO targets like TSMC, believing that 2026 to 2028 will be a transitional period where pluggable optical modules, CPO/NPO, and copper interconnects coexist. The true explosive growth of CPO will begin after 2028.

Regarding the 800V DC power cabinet issue, Morgan Stanley’s stance is completely opposite to SemiAnalysis. Their supply chain research shows that the mass production process for 800V has not been interrupted. Nvidia has already announced at the Taipei GTC conference that 800V cabinets will be ready for mass production by Q3 2026, and Delta Electronics is expected to become the first manufacturer to mass produce independent 800V cabinets, with the first batch delivered to major North American cloud providers in Q4 2026. The substantive disagreement between the two reports mainly centers on the direction of the ±400V DC power supply — SemiAnalysis believes that ±400V will run in parallel with 800V long-term, while Morgan Stanley’s research shows that major cloud providers have shifted their R&D focus from ±400V to 800V. This disagreement will directly impact the competitive landscape and vendor positioning in the power supply chain. The final test of both judgments will depend on Delta’s first shipments in Q4 2026 and the implementation of ±400V sidecar orders by the end of the year.