Morgan Stanley responds to SemiAnalysis’s “small essay” that caused U.S. stocks to fall yesterday: it agrees that the CPO’s near-term volume increase is below expectations, but that 800V mass production is advancing as scheduled

BlockBeats News, June 10 — Morgan Stanley today responded to the SemiAnalysis research report that triggered a major decline in U.S. stocks yesterday. They agree with SemiAnalysis's view that CPO short-term volume growth is below expectations, but still remain optimistic about explosive growth in CPO after 2028. They also explicitly refuted the claim that 800V mass production has been delayed until 2028, with supply chain research showing that 800V cabinets will still be launched as planned in the second half of 2026.

Yesterday, independent research firm SemiAnalysis released a report stating that two major technological pathways for AI data centers have experienced significant delays. This report was identified as one of the main reasons for the major decline in AI industry stocks in the U.S. stock market yesterday.

In the CPO direction, Morgan Stanley and SemiAnalysis have basically the same judgment — their estimates show that global optical engine shipments will be only 6 to 7 million units in 2027, far below the market’s general expectation of 20 to 30 million units. The core constraints come from TSMC’s SoIC yield rate of only 50%-60% and downstream assembly yield rates as low as 20%-50%, creating manufacturing bottlenecks. Short-term sentiment will remain under pressure; however, Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating on core CPO targets like TSMC, believing that 2026 to 2028 will be a transition period where pluggable optical modules, CPO/NPO, and copper interconnects coexist. The explosive growth of CPO will truly begin after 2028.

Regarding the 800V DC power cabinet issue, Morgan Stanley’s stance is completely opposite to SemiAnalysis. Morgan’s supply chain research shows that the mass production process for 800V has not been interrupted. Nvidia has already announced at the Taipei GTC conference that 800V cabinets will be ready for mass production by Q3 2026, and Delta Electronics is expected to become the first manufacturer to mass produce independent 800V cabinets, with the first batch delivered to major North American cloud providers in Q4 2026. The substantive difference between the two reports mainly focuses on the direction of the ±400V DC方案 — SemiAnalysis believes that ±400V will run in parallel with 800V long-term, while Morgan’s research indicates that major cloud providers have shifted their R&D focus from ±400V to 800V. This divergence will directly impact the competitive landscape and vendor positioning in the power supply chain. The subsequent delivery of Delta’s first batch in Q4 2026 and the landing of ±400V sidecar orders by the end of the year will be the final basis for testing these two judgments.