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Before the CPI data release tonight, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year is 68.8%.
BlockBeats News, June 10. According to CME “Federal Reserve Watch” data, before tonight’s U.S. release of May CPI, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the year is 68.8%. Among them, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 43.1%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 21.2%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point hike is 4.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point hike is 0.3%.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data tonight at 20:30. The market broadly expects May CPI to rise 0.5% month-over-month, and the year-over-year growth rate to reach 4.2%. If this expectation holds, it will mark the first time since May 2023 that U.S. CPI returns above 4%, reaching the highest level since April 2023. For core CPI, the market expects May core CPI to increase 0.3% month-over-month and the year-over-year growth rate to be 2.9%.