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Everyone is posting analysis reports on Semianalysis about the 800VDC and CPO delays.
I think it’s very necessary to look at it together with Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston’s discussion at the Mizuho Tech Conference.
They happened to be released on the same day.
🧐Researcher’s perspective is:
CPO has been delayed, the timeline no longer matches.
🏭Industry’s perspective is:
The industry is still in the early stage of the photonics super cycle, with demand growth still outpacing supply expansion.
Lumentum’s growth is not only from the migration of rates from 800G to 1.6T and 3.2T, but also from new architectures such as scale-up, CPO, NPO, OCS, and data center interconnects.