## 🥇 Gold Daily Report | June 10

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### Core Data

| Indicator | Value |
|:---|:---|
| **Spot Price** | **$4,182**/oz |
| Intraday Change | -2.0% |
| Intraday Range | $4,173 ~ $4,364 |
| 7-Day Change | ≈-8% |
| ATH | $5,598.75 (January) |
| **ATH Drawdown** | **-25.3%** |
| 200-Day Moving Average | $4,440 (broken; turned from support to resistance) |
| Domestic Gold Jewelry | 1,316 RMB/gram (Chow Tai Fook) |
| Bank Gold Bars | 961-972 RMB/gram |

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### Major Events Last Night

1. **US-Iran conflict escalates again**: On the 9th, the US military carried out “self-defense strikes” on Iran in response to an Apache helicopter being shot down; explosions occurred in multiple locations in Iran’s Hormozgan Province. Ceasefire arrangements are precarious, and passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted [Cailian Press]
2. **Five major banks collectively cut their gold price forecasts**: Citibank’s 3-month target → $4,000 (from $4,300); JPMorgan’s 2026 average price → $5,243 (from $5,708); Morgan Stanley’s H2 target → $5,200 (from $5,700); Deutsche Bank year-end → $4,800 (from $5,000); ANZ delays the $6,000 timeline [Sina Finance]
3. **Gold ETFs continue to reduce holdings for 9 consecutive days**, with funds steadily exiting precious metals
4. **China’s central bank adds to holdings against the trend**: In May, it increased by 320,000 ounces to 74.96 million ounces, marking 19 consecutive months of accumulation and the largest month-on-month increase since the end of 2024 [Everbright Futures]
5. **Rate hike expectations surge**: FedWatch shows a 98.2% probability of holding rates in June, and the probability of a rate hike in December rises to 68-76% [June 10 Gold Times]

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### Resistance / Support

| Direction | Price Level | Explanation |
|:---|:---:|:---|
| Resistance 3 | $4,440 | 200-Day Moving Average (has flipped to resistance) |
| Resistance 2 | $4,300 | Short-term key resistance |
| Resistance 1 | $4,250 | Round-number level |
| **Current Price** | **$4,182** | |
| Support 1 | $4,180 | Intraday low today |
| Support 2 | $4,100 | March low area |
| Support 3 | $4,000 | Citibank’s 3-month target / psychological level |

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##
**Clearly bearish in the short term, but avoid chasing shorts when extremely oversold.**

- **RSI is near 20**; the daily MACD green bars continue; moving averages are arranged bearishly; technicals remain weak
- After **4 consecutive days of sharp declines**, the risk-reward ratio of shorting is poor—chasing shorts can easily be “hit in the face” by CPI data
- **CPI is the only variable tonight**:
- CPI > 4.2% → rate hike expectations heat up → gold tests $4,100-$4,000
- CPI 4.0%-4.2% → in line with expectations → range-bound digestion, possible technical rebound to $4,250
- CPI < 4.0% → rate hike expectations cool down → rebound to $4,300+ but difficult to break $4,440
- **Trading suggestion**: mainly stay on the sidelines and decide after CPI settles; if price drops quickly below $4,100, consider building small long positions in batches with a stop-loss at $3,980

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##
| Time | Event |
|:---|:---|
| **Tonight 20:30** | 📌 US May CPI (expected 4.2% YoY, core 2.9%) |
| 6/12 | SpaceX IPO (risk of fund diversion) |
| **6/16-17** | 📌 FOMC meeting (Powell’s first appearance) |
| 6/24 | US bank stress test results |

Tonight’s CPI decides everything—wait for the data 🪨