#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

I. Stock Price Trend Review: A Sudden Plunge After Hitting a New High
In mid-May, Nvidia’s stock price, spurred by strong earnings results, briefly reached a historical high of about $238 after previously posting seven straight bullish candles, rising from $207 by more than 13%. However, on June 5, it suffered a major setback: the stock plunged 6.20% on the day to close at $205.10, the largest single-day decline in recent times. As of June 6, the stock has been trading in the area around $207.65, while the 52-week high remains $236.29.
This is a “kill-the-expectations” style adjustment. The stock has been consolidating at high levels for nearly three weeks, and the sensitive window for choosing direction has now opened; the long bearish candle on June 5 provided the answer for the near term.
II. Fundamental Performance: Strong Numbers, but Growth Momentum Is Slowing
In Nvidia’s fiscal first quarter 2027 (as of the end of April 2026), revenue was $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, and gross margin was maintained at about 75%—a high level. However, it is worth noting that compared with the prior quarter’s growth rate of 73%, the increase here is only slightly higher. And compared with the quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion in Q4, the pattern of slowing quarter-over-quarter growth is already emerging—this is also one of the internal reasons behind the stock’s repeated “gap up then fall” moves after earnings reports.
- The data center business remains the absolute core, already accounting for nearly 90% of the company’s revenue; however, an overconcentration in a single business segment implies structurally weaker ability to withstand risks.
- Blackwell GPUs shipped a total of 6 million units over the past four quarters, and together with the next-generation Vera Rubin, they are expected to generate $500 billion in revenue by the end of 2026.
- The China market is the biggest source of uncertainty: the outlook for export restrictions on H20 chips, potential lifting of expectations, and the pace of demand recovery are all highly uncertain.
At the fundamental level, the company’s “overall health” remains robust, but the slope of growth is shifting from steep to more flat. The market’s threshold for “above-expectation growth” has been continuously raised, and the gap between what supply-side and demand-side players expect is narrowing.
III. Key Technical Levels: The Battle Between Support and Resistance
The current technical picture shows short-term bearish momentum coexisting with a medium-term bullish structure.
Level | Price Range | Technical Meaning
Recent low | $204.33 | The intraday low on June 5; an important level to watch in the short term
50-day EMA ~ $205–206 | The mid-term lifeline; if it breaks convincingly, it will shake bullish confidence
22-day EMA ~ $212–215 | The first obstacle for a short-term rebound
Resistance zone $232–236 | “Ceiling”; repeatedly tested in May without success
Long-term trend support ~ $185 (200-day EMA) | If it breaks, the trend structure will fundamentally change
On the daily chart, the price has fallen below all short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 30-day). On the hourly timeframe, it is in a clearly bearish phase. RSI has slipped from neutral 54.25 to below 40, entering a weak zone. MACD shows negative histogram bars accumulating, with short-term momentum leaning bearish.
But from the weekly and monthly charts, the three key moving average lines (20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMA) still maintain a relatively good bullish alignment. Some analysts believe the current pullback can be interpreted as healthy consolidation within a bull market—similar to a “bull flag” pattern—rather than a trend reversal. If the price can find effective support and stabilize in the $200–205 range, it may still retest the $232–236 resistance zone afterward.
The medium-term trend is intact, but the short-term turning point is being tested. Whether the long bearish candle on June 5 is merely a sentiment-driven reaction or the start of a deeper correction will be the most important variable to watch over the next several trading days.
IV. Institutional Ratings and Target Prices: Divergence Between Domestic and Foreign Expectations
As of early June, multiple top institutions maintained positive ratings for Nvidia:
Institution | Rating | Target Price | Core Logic
Bank of America | Buy | $350 | New-generation chips could potentially double the market size
Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $288 | Vera Rubin is key to maintaining market share
Goldman Sachs | Buy (Conviction List) | $1,000 | Valuation in the distant future under an optimistic scenario
Southwest Securities | Buy | $249.54 | Continued benefits from the full-stack ecosystem advantage to AI computing demand
Citi | Buy | $270 | The current valuation is attractive
The target price range is extremely wide ($250–350 versus $1,000). In essence, it reflects disagreements between different time horizons and different valuation frameworks regarding long-term certainty versus the short-term growth-rate slope:
- Bank of America and Morgan Stanley’s target prices in the $288–350 range anchor on 2027 performance, corresponding to 22–25x PE; this is already the more cautious valuation center of gravity.
- Goldman Sachs’ $1,000 target implies an aggressive assumption that the AI infrastructure cycle is “linearly extrapolated into a super-long cycle,” which has limited reference value for ordinary investors and should not be used as a basis for short-term pricing.
V. Review of Bullish and Bearish Factors: Good News Piling Up, with Hidden Risks Stirring
Supporting factors
1. AI computing demand remains strong. Cloud service providers continue to raise their capital expenditure budgets, and the medium-term direction has not changed.
2. Vera Rubin platform volume production and delivery in the second half of the year: AWS, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and other leading providers have already made clear plans for initial deployments; institutional research confirms there is significant room for shipment volume.
3. If H20 is allowed to be exported (a “release” outcome) and the optimistic scenario plays out, it may bring an additional $12–175 billion in revenue in 2026.
4. Sovereign AI trading is becoming a new growth engine. Sovereign AI projects in countries such as Canada, France, and the UK are expected to contribute more than $30 billion in revenue this fiscal year.
5. The $80 billion share buyback plan provides a bottom support for the stock price, and the market is continuously digesting this positive catalyst.
Risks and concerns
1. Rumors of memory cutbacks disrupt sentiment: the market misread the SemiAnalysis report, triggering a chain reaction in which Micron Technology plunged by more than 10% and SK Hynix fell nearly 10%. Although Jensen Huang urgently clarified the next day to deny that HBM usage would be cut, once such information triggers market panic, it often does not subside immediately.
2. Risk of underestimated Chinese demand: the short-selling firm Culper believes that 20%–40% of Nvidia’s data center business demand still comes from “functionally from China.” If China increases domestic substitution efforts, once this hidden demand shrinks in practice, the impact could exceed market expectations.
3. Doubts about whether AI growth is sustainable: some believe the AI boom may contain bubble components. If the industry cycle turns, Nvidia’s own balance sheet cannot singlehandedly support sustained demand.
4. Supply constraints remain a key limiting factor, which will form “unfavorable factors” for the subsequent gaming business.
VI. Comprehensive Assessment and Key Points to Watch
The recent market move can be summarized as: fundamentals are strong, but marginal growth is slowing; the medium-term technical structure is bullish, but short-term bearishness is dominant. The more-than-6% sharp pullback on June 5 is the result of multiple negative signals resonating and stacking within the same window (misinterpretation of memory cutback rumors, Broadcom earnings coming in below expectations impacting the ASIC sector, and profit-taking driven by sentiment across the overall AI semiconductor space). It looks more like a concentrated release of sentiment than a fundamental shake-up of the underlying logic.
Over the coming weeks, closely monitor the following key variables:
1. Whether the $200–205 level (near the 50-day EMA) can stabilize effectively—this is the most critical tactical observation point today, and gains or losses here will directly affect judgments about the medium-term trend.
2. The actual mass-production and delivery cadence of Vera Rubin chips and the degree to which the company is fulfilling its Q2 earnings guidance.
3. The final direction of the U.S. export controls on H20 chips to China and the actual changes in China demand.
4. Whether cloud service providers will further increase their capital expenditure plans or whether their spending will converge at the margin.
5. Whether tightness in the memory supply chain will transmit from the sentiment level to the actual supply level.