#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票

1. Stock Price Trend Review: A Sharp Drop After Reaching a New High
In mid-May, Nvidia's stock price briefly hit a historical high of about $238 driven by strong earnings reports, after rising for seven consecutive days from $207, an increase of over 13%. However, on June 5th, it experienced a heavy decline, dropping 6.20% to close at $205.10, the largest single-day percentage decline recently. As of June 6th, the stock fluctuated around $207.65, with the 52-week high still at $236.29.
This is a "kill expectations" style correction. The stock price has been consolidating at high levels for nearly three weeks, and the sensitive window for choosing direction has opened, with the long bearish candlestick on June 5th providing a short-term directional answer.
2. Fundamentals and Performance: Strong Numbers but Slowing Growth
Nvidia's fiscal first quarter of 2027 (ending April 2026) revenue reached $81.6 billion, up 85% year-over-year, with gross margin maintained at around 75%. However, it is noteworthy that compared to the previous quarter's growth rate of 73%, the current increase is only slightly higher; and compared to the $68.1 billion quarterly revenue in Q4, the quarter-over-quarter growth has shown signs of slowing—this is also one of the internal reasons for the stock's multiple "opening high and closing low" after the quarterly report.
- Data center business remains the absolute core, contributing nearly 90% of the company's revenue, but over-reliance on a single business indicates a structurally weak risk resistance.
- Blackwell GPUs shipped a total of 6 million units over the past four quarters, plus the upcoming Vera Rubin generation, expected to generate $500 billion in revenue by the end of 2026.
- The Chinese market is the biggest variable: the outlook for H20 chip export restrictions, potential lifting expectations, and demand recovery pace are highly uncertain.
On the fundamental level, the company's "physique" remains robust, but the growth slope is shifting from steep to gentle. The market's threshold for "unexpected growth" has been raised continuously, and the narrowing of expectations between supply and demand is happening.
3. Key Technical Levels: Support and Resistance Battles
Currently, the technical picture shows a coexistence of short-term bearish momentum and medium-term bullish structure.
Level Price Range Technical Significance
Recent Low $204.33 The intraday low on June 5th, an important short-term observation point
50-day EMA ~ $205-206 Mid-term lifeline, a break below would shake bullish confidence
22-day EMA ~ $212-215 Short-term rebound obstacle
Resistance Zone $232-236 "Ceiling," repeatedly tested in May without success
Long-term Trend Support ~ $185 (200-day EMA) A break below would change the trend structure fundamentally
On the daily chart, the price has lost all short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 30-day), and on the hourly level, it is clearly in a bearish phase. RSI has fallen from a neutral 54.25 to below 40, indicating weakness, and MACD shows negative histogram accumulation, with short-term momentum biased bearish.
However, on weekly and monthly charts, the three main exponential moving averages (20-day, 50-day, 200-day EMA) still maintain a good bullish alignment. Some analysts interpret this correction as healthy consolidation within a bull market, similar to a "bull flag" pattern, rather than a trend reversal. If the price can find effective support and stabilize around $200-205, it may retest the resistance zone of $232-236.
The medium-term trend remains intact, but the short-term inflection point is being tested. Whether the long bearish candlestick on June 5th is merely an emotional reaction or the start of a deeper correction will be the most important variable to watch in the coming trading days.
4. Institutional Ratings and Target Prices: Divergence Between Domestic and Foreign Expectations
As of early June, several top institutions maintained positive ratings on Nvidia:
Institution Rating Target Price Core Logic
Bank of America Buy $350 New generation chips could double the potential market size
Morgan Stanley Overweight $288 Vera Rubin is key to maintaining market share
Goldman Sachs Buy (Conviction List) $1,000 Optimistic scenario's long-term valuation
Southwest Securities Buy $249.54 Full-stack ecosystem advantages continue to benefit AI computing demand
Citibank Buy $270 Current valuation is attractive
The target price range varies greatly (from $250-350 to $1,000), reflecting differences in time horizons and valuation frameworks regarding long-term certainty and short-term growth slopes:
- BofA and Morgan Stanley target prices in the $288-350 range, anchored to 2027 performance, with PE ratios of 22-25, representing a cautious valuation center;
- Goldman Sachs' $1,000 target implies an aggressive assumption of the AI infrastructure cycle "linearly extrapolated over an extended period," which has limited reference value for ordinary investors and should not be used as a short-term pricing basis.
5. Bullish and Bearish Factors: Accumulation of Positives, Hidden Risks
Supporting Factors
1. AI computing demand remains strong, cloud service providers continue to increase capital expenditure budgets, with no change in mid-term direction.
2. Vera Rubin platform mass production and delivery in the second half of the year, with major providers like AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure already planning initial deployments; institutional research confirms large shipment potential.
3. If the H20 ban is lifted, in an optimistic scenario, it could bring $12-17.5 billion in revenue increments by 2026.
4. Sovereign AI transactions are becoming new growth engines, with projects in Canada, France, and the UK expected to contribute over $30 billion in revenue this fiscal year.
5. The $80 billion share repurchase plan provides a bottom support for the stock price, and the market is continuously digesting this positive factor.
Risks and Concerns
1. Rumors of memory reductions disturb sentiment: market misinterpreted SemiAnalysis reports, triggering a chain reaction with Micron plunging over 10% and SK Hynix nearly 10%. Although Jensen Huang clarified the next day that HBM usage was not cut, such information can trigger panic, which often does not subside immediately.
2. Chinese demand risk may be underestimated: short-selling firm Culper believes 20%-40% of Nvidia's data center demand still comes from "functionally Chinese" needs. If China intensifies domestic substitution, this hidden demand could shrink visibly, impacting beyond market expectations.
3. Sustainability of AI growth is questioned: some believe the AI boom may contain bubbles, and if industry cycles shift, Nvidia's balance sheet may not support sustained demand alone.
4. Supply restrictions remain a key constraint, posing "adverse factors" for future gaming business.
6. Overall Assessment and Key Focus Points
Recent market movements can be summarized as: strong fundamentals but slowing marginal growth, medium-term bullish but short-term bearish technicals, consensus optimism but structural risks. The sharp decline of over 6% on June 5th is a resonance of multiple negative signals (memory rumor misinterpretation, Broadcom earnings disappointment impacting ASIC sector, profit-taking in overall AI semiconductor sentiment), overlapping in the same window, more akin to emotional release than a fundamental shake-up.
In the coming weeks, close monitoring of the following key variables is essential:
1. Whether the $200-205 support zone (around the 50-day EMA) can hold effectively—this is the most critical tactical observation point, directly affecting the medium-term trend judgment;
2. The actual delivery pace of Vera Rubin chips and the fulfillment of Q2 earnings guidance;
3. The final outcome of US export controls on H20 chips to China and actual demand changes;
4. Whether cloud service providers will further increase capital expenditure plans or see marginal convergence;
5. Whether tensions in memory supply chains will translate from sentiment to actual supply constraints.