The Middle East has erupted again, but BTC is not dead yet! #The conflict in the Middle East has escalated again, yet the market trend is completely diverging from the usual safe-haven logic. Amidst the tense situation, gold plummeted sharply to 4185, dropping over 2% intraday; BTC dipped to 60770, nearly breaking the 60,000 level, then quickly rebounded and stabilized above 61400.

The current market is not simply a gamble on war risk; funds are mainly betting on three points:
1. The scale of the conflict is uncertain, with conflicting messages from multiple parties, making it hard for the market to determine whether it’s a full-scale war or just a verbal confrontation;

2. CPI data influences expectations of rate cuts, and the direction of interest rates is the core factor determining BTC’s overall trend;

3. The 60,000 level is a lifeline for bulls and bears. Holding it could lead to a short-term rebound, while breaking below it would directly reverse market sentiment and trigger a deep sell-off.
Position analysis: The first resistance above is 63,000-63,500, with strong resistance at 65,000; the key support below is 60,000-60,700, and losing it would lead to a sharp decline in the bear market.
Gold’s abnormal weakness indicates that funds are not blindly seeking safety; everyone is watching and waiting for data and the situation to unfold. The biggest risk in the upcoming market is repeated oscillations, with bulls and bears taking turns to trap retail investors.
At this stage, there’s no need to blindly bullish or bearish; as long as the 60,000 level holds, bulls still have room to breathe. Once it is effectively broken, the market will reassess the overall risk. With war and data both pressing on the market, rushing into positions is highly likely to result in losses. #贝莱德减持BTC增持ETH #现货黄金跌破4200美元 $BTC $ETH