What will CPI do to BTC tonight, the core actually boils down to four numbers: CPI annual rate 4.2%, CPI monthly rate 0.5%, core CPI monthly rate 0.3%, core CPI annual rate 2.9%. Polymarket is essentially betting on whether these four figures will be above expectations, below expectations, or exactly in line with market consensus.

If the results come out higher than these expectations tonight, especially if the core CPI monthly rate exceeds 0.3%, the market will interpret it as inflation being stickier than expected, pushing back the rate cut expectations, which could lead to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, and BTC is likely to face short-term pressure.
Conversely, if the data are below expectations, especially if the core CPI monthly rate is below 0.3%, the market will feel that inflation pressure isn't as strong, risk assets will feel much more comfortable, and BTC will find it easier to move upward with the trend.
So, although there are four data points on the surface, the two most sensitive ones are actually the CPI monthly rate and the core CPI monthly rate. The annual rates are more about giving the market a general direction, while the monthly rates are more likely to determine the immediate short-term reaction.
In simple terms, tonight's focus isn't on whether there is inflation, but whether inflation is hotter than the market fears. If the core CPI monthly rate can't be contained, BTC will likely be hammered first; if the core CPI monthly rate is below expectations, the market sentiment tonight will probably be much more relaxed.