Sharp drop, followed by weak consolidation! The 4100 life-or-death line is in crisis—aiming for 4000!

On Friday’s late trading session, gold surged to 4480 and then fell off a cliff. In today’s Asian session, it accelerated as it broke down further, briefly dipping to 4160 to test a key support level, before rebounding slightly. It is currently trading around 4188. Overall, it has formed a one-way bearish pattern of “breakdown lower, weak rebound,” with a clearly dominant sell-side pressure. The 4100 level is the last line of defense for short-term bulls; once it is lost, it will trigger a new round of a sharp selloff.

Bearish signals dominate across the board: the TRIX trend indicator is continuing to form a sustained death cross and move lower; the MACD fast and slow lines are deeply diverging below the 0-axis; the green momentum histogram continues to expand, and bearish momentum has not yet shown signs of topping. The rebound potential is extremely limited. The daily moving average system is arranged bearish, with the 5/10/30-day moving averages simultaneously suppressing the price. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the price is trading far away from the middle band, indicating a solid bearish trend structure. For the four-hour timeframe, the RSI has touched the oversold zone, but there is no clear bullish divergence signal—any rebound is only viewed as a technical correction within the downtrend.

Prudent positioning: short in the 4220–4240 range and the 4305–4285 range. Targets are 4160–4100. If the 4100 level fails, add positions to follow the move lower and look toward the 4000 whole-number level.
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