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Fear and Greed Index drops to 8! BTC drops below 62K again, the US strikes Iran for the third time—are you still bottom-fishing?
Yesterday's rebound was just a flash in the pan. BTC just touched 64K, and today it was pushed back below 62K, with a low of 60,780. The Fear and Greed Index fell from 12 to 8, sliding from "Fear" directly into "Extreme Fear" within a week.
Even more concerning, the US just launched the third round of strikes against Iran, and the ceasefire agreement is essentially meaningless. Iran has also closed the Strait of Mandeb—the route through which 12% of global trade passes. Oil prices are soaring, and inflation expectations will only become more stubborn.
Wintermute directly warned: BTC currently lacks capital inflows confirming a bottom. $2 billion in futures have been liquidated, leverage has been almost wiped out, but institutions are still fleeing—yesterday, BTC spot ETF outflows reached another $91 million.
But from another perspective: with the Fear and Greed Index at 8, such extreme fear historically often signals a good long-term buying opportunity. RSI on the monthly chart is 33.5, oversold. BTC just hit the 200-week moving average, and in 2020 and 2022, major rebounds started from this level.
A. This is the bottom, the more fearful, the more to buy B. The geopolitical situation isn't over, 60K is not the bottom