Key Window Before CPI: Bulls and Bears Are Both Waiting for a Direction

Market sentiment is being driven by macro factors. Tonight, the US CPI data will be released, and currently, the rate hike expectation has soared to over 70%, which is a real pressure on interest-free assets (BTC/gold). Bitcoin has retraced from the May high of $80k to now, and the market is actually pricing in the continuation of tightening.

From the chart, the key trading range is between 61,000 and 62,500. From a technical perspective, it looks more like a secondary double bottom—if the 61,000-61,500 zone can hold, there is potential for a W-shaped bottom; if it cannot hold, the next liquidity hunt zone is around 60,000. It’s worth noting that the rebound after yesterday’s dip to 60,760 was weak, and the 4-hour chart still shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish arrangement.

The short-term strategy is simple: before the CPI data is released, large funds will not rashly bet on a one-sided move.

Reference strategies:

Low-leverage long idea: Lightly buy around 61,200, with a stop below 60,700, targeting the 62,000-62,500 range.

High-leverage short idea: If there is resistance around 62,000-62,500, consider shorting lightly with strict stop-loss.

Key reminder: Before the data is released, control your position size and avoid greed. Whether long or short, there will likely be a shakeout after the data comes out. Surviving is more important than betting correctly.