From Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action, a shallow analysis of BTC short-term trend

$BTC ‌1. Dow Theory (Dow Theory)
Main trend (1-hour level): The medium-term downtrend from the high point of 82,448 on May 10 continues. After a panic plunge to 59,095 on June 5, the market consolidated at low levels on June 6–7, then rebounded strongly on June 8, reaching a high of 64,188, but on June 9, the entire day showed an "gap up, then decline, high volume crash" extremely weak trend. After opening at 63,050, it briefly surged to 63,487, then entered a relentless decline. At 00:15, it fell to 62,697; at 04:30, rebounded to 63,206; at 07:15, plummeted to 63,001; at 08:00, sharply dropped to 62,882; at 10:30, broke below 62,500; at 11:00, down to 62,490; at 13:30, panic drop to 62,236; at 14:30, a terrifying crash from 61,569 straight down to 61,314; at 15:45, fell to 61,081; at 16:30, hit the intraday low of 60,740. Although it rebounded to 61,548 at the close, the entire day saw a decline of 2,502 points. The medium-term downtrend is very clear, and the crash on June 9 indicates renewed bearish force.

Short-term trend (15-minute level): The movement on June 9 was a "free fall" crash. The short-term high points moved down from 63,487 (05:30) to 63,336 (06:00), 63,395 (06:15), 62,882 (08:00), 62,764 (10:45), 62,693 (11:45), 62,616 (12:30), 62,301 (13:15), 61,966 (14:00), 61,607 (15:00), 61,277 (15:15), 61,082 (15:45). The short-term lows moved down from 62,540 (00:30) to 62,393 (00:45), 62,524 (01:00), 62,642 (02:15), 62,516 (02:30), 62,716 (04:00), 62,761 (04:15), 63,206 (04:30), 63,001 (07:15), 62,882 (08:00), 62,568 (09:30), 62,500 (11:00), 62,480 (12:30), 62,230 (13:15), 61,956 (14:00), 61,526 (14:15), 61,314 (14:30), 61,110 (14:45), 60,877 (16:00), 60,740 (16:30). Highs and lows moved downward in sync, with the downward speed accelerating sharply in the afternoon, indicating a steep decline in the short-term trend.

Dow conclusion: The main trend is downward and accelerating; the short-term trend is a steep decline. The crash on June 9 has largely retraced the gains from the June 8 rebound, returning the market to a deeply bearish state. The key resistance above is 62,500; if the price can break through this level effectively, the short-term decline may pause; if the rebound is blocked at 62,000 and falls below 60,740, the downtrend continues, targeting the 59,095–57,000 range.

2. Chan Theory (缠论)
Pattern structure: At the 15-minute level, multiple valid top and bottom fractals are marked on the chart.

Top fractals: Appear at 64,188 (June 8 15:00), 63,898 (June 5 00:30), 63,487 (June 9 05:30), 63,395 (June 9 06:15), 63,336 (June 9 06:00), 62,882 (June 9 08:00), 62,764 (June 9 10:45), 62,693 (June 9 11:45), 62,616 (June 9 12:30), 62,301 (June 9 13:15), 61,966 (June 9 14:00), 61,607 (June 9 15:00), 61,277 (June 9 15:15), 61,082 (June 9 15:45). These top fractals appear densely with the price gradually decreasing, indicating very strong bearish force, with each rebound being an excellent opportunity for bears to add positions.

Bottom fractals: Appear at 59,095 (June 5 18:45), 59,460 (June 6 04:15), 60,708 (June 7 00:45), 61,554 (June 7 19:00), 62,860 (June 7 22:15), 62,374 (June 8 05:30), 62,687 (June 8 12:00), 63,383 (June 8 13:30), 62,540 (June 9 00:30), 62,393 (June 9 00:45), 62,524 (June 9 01:00), 62,642 (June 9 02:15), 62,516 (June 9 02:30), 62,716 (June 9 04:00), 62,761 (June 9 04:15), 63,206 (June 9 04:30), 63,001 (June 9 07:15), 62,568 (June 9 09:30), 62,500 (June 9 11:00), 62,480 (June 9 12:30), 62,230 (June 9 13:15), 61,956 (June 9 14:00), 61,526 (June 9 14:15), 61,314 (June 9 14:30), 61,110 (June 9 14:45), 60,877 (June 9 16:00), 60,740 (June 9 16:30), 61,185 (June 9 18:30), 61,699 (June 9 18:00), 61,816 (June 9 19:15). Although bottom fractals are forming, the lows keep decreasing, with buyers unable to strongly support, and rebounds weakening each time.

Bi (笔) and line segments: From the bottom fractal at 59,095 to the top fractal at 64,188 (June 8 15:00), a very strong upward line (blue line) was formed, with a rise of about 5,093 points, showing strong momentum. Then from 64,188 to 60,740 (June 9 16:30), a more powerful downward line (brown line) was formed, with a decline of about 3,448 points, roughly 67.6% of the previous upward move, indicating very fierce bearish force, with bullish recovery momentum significantly weakening. Currently, from the 60,740 bottom fractal, the price is constructing a new upward line, with the latest high at 61,816.

Central zone: In the 62,000–64,000 range, the candles on June 7–8 are densely interwoven, forming a central zone in Chan Theory. But the crash on June 9 broke this zone completely; the current price of 61,548 is well below the lower boundary of the zone, indicating an accelerated decline after the zone break. In the 60,500–62,000 range, candles are forming a new downward central zone.

Chan conclusion: The downward line segment force is extremely strong (-3,448) and about 67.6% of the upward line (+5,093), showing very strong bearish force. The current move is a weak rebound after the downward extension, with no end signal yet. Short-term focus is whether 60,740 can form an effective bottom fractal; if yes, the downward line may end; if it breaks below 60,500, the downward extension is likely, with a target of 59,095.

3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour wave structure, the trend from the high of 82,448 on May 10 is divided into a typical "five-wave decline + ABC failed rebound" pattern:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 82,448 down to 75,658 (May 26), about -6,790.
Wave 2 (Rebound): From 75,658 up to 78,002 (May 26), about +2,344.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 78,002 down to 66,703 (June 2), about -11,299.
Wave 4 (Rebound): From 66,703 up to 74,153 (May 31), about +7,450.
Wave 5 (Final crash): From 74,153 down to 59,095 (June 5), about -15,058.
A wave (Rebound): From 59,095 up to 64,188 (June 8 15:00), about +5,093.
B wave (Correction): From 64,188 down to 60,740 (June 9 16:30), about -3,448. The B wave correction is about 67.6% of A wave, a deep correction indicating very strong bearish force.

From 60,740, the wave theory suggests two possibilities:
1. Continued ABC rebound: B wave correction completed, now entering C wave rebound, target 63,000–64,000 (equal length to A) or 65,000–66,000 (extended C wave).
2. Downward impulsive wave begins: The current rebound is just a sub-wave within B wave, with subsequent B-3, B-4, B-5 waves continuing to new lows, targeting 59,095–57,000.

Wave conclusion: The current phase is a weak rebound after B wave crash completion. The deep correction (67.6%) shows very strong bearish force. If the price cannot quickly recover above 62,500, the impulsive decline will be severe, with a target of 59,095–57,000.

4. Volume-Price Relationship
Overall volume-price features: On June 9, extremely extreme volume-price behavior appeared. During the early decline, volume was relatively shrinking; during the midday crash, huge volume accompanied the decline; in the late session, volume gradually shrank again. Dense volume-down candles appeared, with volume increasing stepwise, indicating panic selling.

Key volume-price nodes:
- 00:15 June 9: A large-volume bearish candle (118 million), from 62,978 down to 62,697, body 281, shadow 289, confirming panic selling early.
- 04:30 June 9: A large-volume bullish candle (224 million), from 62,773 up to 63,206, body 433, showing buy support.
- 07:15 June 9: A large-volume bearish candle (624 million), from 63,231 down to 63,001, body 230, shadow 353, confirming panic selling.
- 08:00 June 9: An even more terrifying huge-volume bearish candle (980 million), from 63,158 down to 62,882, body 276, shadow 417, confirming cliff-like crash.
- 12:00 June 9: Large-volume bearish candle (351 million), from 62,664 down to 62,481, body 183, shadow 157, confirming active selling in the afternoon.
- 14:30 June 9: Terrifying huge-volume bearish candle (774 million), from 61,569 down to 61,314, body 255, shadow 299, confirming concentrated panic selling.
- 15:45 June 9: Large-volume bearish candle (23 million), from 61,299 down to 61,081, body 218, shadow 218, confirming continued active selling.
- 16:30 June 9: Terrifying huge-volume bearish candle (40 million), from 61,199 down to 60,740, body 459, shadow 293, confirming extreme panic selling.
- 17:15 June 9: Large-volume bullish candle (4.4B), from 61,551 up to 61,689, body 138, showing buy support at low levels, slight easing of panic.

Recent 10x 15-minute candles: From 61,701 oscillating down to 61,548, volume shows alternating shrinking and expanding, market waiting for direction in the 61,000–61,800 range.

Volume-price conclusion: During the crash, huge volume accompanied panic selling, with very strong bearish force. The recent low-volume consolidation indicates weak bullish support. If a rebound reaches 62,000 with volume increasing and price stalling, it confirms bearish dominance; if the price breaks below 60,740 with volume, a new crash to 59,095 is likely.

5. Order Flow (Order Book)
Volume Profile: The recent 3 days' volume control point (POC) is at 61,641, the most active trading area, forming the current key value zone center. Notably, the POC has shifted sharply down from around 63,000 on June 8 to 61,641, and the current price of 61,548 is slightly below POC, indicating a slight divergence between market value center and actual price, with the value zone rapidly descending.

Current analysis: Price at 61,548 is about 93 points below POC, in the "Below Value" zone with minimal deviation. In order flow theory, breaking below POC indicates short-term sellers gaining advantage, market shifting from premium to discount. The current price is near POC, and if it cannot quickly return above POC, the risk of further decline is high.

High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 63,000–64,000: Resistance HVN (high volume at rebound high on June 8, now broken as resistance)
- 62,000–63,000: Mid resistance HVN (high volume during June 9 morning, broken)
- 61,000–62,000: Core support HVN (large volume after June 9 midday crash)
- 60,500–61,000: Lower support HVN (high volume after panic sell-off late June 9)

Delta analysis (bottom subgraph): Delta during the June 9 crash turned sharply negative (-800 million), confirming active sell dominance. At 14:30, Delta remained negative (-600 million), showing continued active selling. At 16:30, Delta again turned sharply negative (-300 million), confirming extreme active sell-off. At 17:15, Delta briefly turned positive (+3 billion), indicating buyers starting to recover slightly. Currently, Delta MA12 is deep in negative territory, showing very weak buying support and dominant selling.

Order flow conclusion: Price broke below POC 61,641, short-term sellers are in control, market in discount zone. Resistance at 62,000 and 62,500 HVNs; if Delta remains positive and volume breaks through these levels, it may recover above POC; if Delta stays negative and price drops below 60,740, a severe decline to 59,095 is highly probable.

6. Price Action
Support and Resistance:
- Strong resistance: 82,448 (high point), 78,002 (May 26 rebound high), 74,153 (May 31 rebound high), 64,188 (June 8 rebound high)
- Key resistance: 63,898 (June 5 open high), 63,487 (June 9 rebound high), 62,500 (psychological level), 62,000 (psychological level)
- Key support: 61,000 (psychological level), 60,740 (June 9 crash low), 60,500 (psychological level), 59,095 (June 5 crash low), 57,000 (psychological level)

Candlestick patterns:
- June 9 08:00: A long lower shadow large bearish candle (body 276, shadow 417) near 62,882, showing panic sell-off with some buy support, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.
- June 9 14:30: A large bearish candle with long lower shadow (body 255, shadow 299), from 61,569 down to 61,314, indicating panic sell-off with weak buy support, forming a "hammer" bullish pattern.
- June 9 16:30: Similar large bearish candle (body 459, shadow 293) near 60,740, showing extreme panic sell-off with buy support, forming a "hammer" pattern.
- June 9 17:15: A large bullish candle (body 138), from 61,551 up to 61,689, indicating buy support at low levels, with weak bullish momentum.

Trend structure:
- Short-term: Running in a steep decline channel (connecting 64,188 and 60,740 downward pressure line)
- Mid-term: The downtrend since May 10 at 82,448 is accelerating; a new downward trend line (connecting 64,188, 63,487, 62,882) is forming.

Price action conclusion: Currently in a low-volatility oscillation zone after a sharp decline, with 60,740 as key short-term support. 62,000 is a dividing line: breaking above may pause the decline toward 62,500; resistance at 62,000–62,500 suggests testing support at 60,740–61,000 if broken.

Comprehensive assessment:
Dow Theory indicates a main trend that is downward and accelerating, with a very steep short-term decline, key levels at 62,500 (up) and 60,740 (down). Chan Theory shows very strong downward line force (-3,448) about 67.6% of upward force (+5,093), in a weak rebound phase after downward extension, with no end signal yet. Elliott Wave suggests that the ABC rebound A wave (+5,093) has ended, B wave crash (-3,448) completed, and the market is in the initial phase of C wave rebound or B wave extension. Volume-price signals during the crash show massive volume and panic selling. Order flow indicates POC at 61,641, with price below POC entering discount territory, and deep negative Delta MA12. Price action shows "hammer" and "shooting star" patterns, with an extremely bearish short-term bias.

Short-term strategy suggestions:
- Bullish bias: If price near 60,740–61,000 shows continuous shrinking volume, bottom fractal formation, and Delta turns positive, consider small long positions targeting 62,000 → 62,500, with stop-loss at 60,200.
- Bearish bias: If rebound to 62,000–62,500 forms a top fractal with increasing volume and downward movement, confirming failed B wave and extension downward, target 59,095 → 57,000, with stop-loss at 63,000.

Current state: At 61,548, in a low position after a crash, extremely bearish in the short term. Not recommended to bottom-fish on the left side. Wait for a rebound near 62,000 to confirm resistance before shorting, or wait for clear bottom structures (double bottom, head and shoulders bottom) before going long.