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Attention, the SemiAnalysis report on optical modules is expected to cause a major stir within 48 hours.
This report titled "Powered Down, Lights Off. 800VDC Pushout and CPO Delays" provides a reason for the severe decline in today’s CPO sector stocks.
A quick quantum read, summarized in one sentence: the market is overly optimistic about 800VDC and CPO, with current yield and integration issues being quite serious.
This has led to NVIDIA’s original push for large-scale adoption of 800VDC being delayed until at least 2028-2029, and in the current Rubin architecture, 800VDC is not essential.
If CPO volume growth is pushed to at least 2028, it benefits copper interconnects (AEC) and pluggable optical module suppliers, reversing the trend of optical advancing at the expense of copper.
These two sectors will continue to outperform within the next two years.