Reasons for the optical module crash: top-tier institutional research reports cite production delays

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BlockBeats News, June 10 — Independent research firm SemiAnalysis, focused on the semiconductor, AI infrastructure, and data center sectors, released its latest multi-vertical research notes today, with core conclusions pointing to significant delays in the two key technological paths for AI data centers.

The first is the substantial postponement of NVIDIA’s native 800VDC architecture shipments. The report states that NVIDIA’s planned large-scale adoption of single-ended 800VDC power design has been pushed back to 2028. Although the 400VDC high-voltage direct current solution is still progressing as originally planned, hyperscalers are currently more inclined to continue using mature low-voltage solutions or gradually transition to 400VDC, rather than rushing to switch to 800VDC. The report notes that the marginal gains in power grid supply and efficiency at 800VDC are insufficient to justify its complexity, leading the industry to temporarily slow down.

The second is the slowdown in mass production and delivery of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics). The 2027 shipment forecast for CPO is significantly lower than previous aggressive market predictions, with mass production timelines possibly delayed until 2028 or even 2029. The shipment volume of scale-out CPO switches faces downward risk, mainly due to optical engine connection yield, ASIC integration difficulty, and overall cost-effectiveness. Currently, optimistic optical engine connection yields are around 95%, but the output driven by a single ASIC remains very limited.

SemiAnalysis states that 400VDC products are expected to ramp up in volume starting in Q2 2026, with a significant increase in 2027; some NPO (Near Package Optics) projects may accelerate. However, shipments of sidecars relying on new platforms like Rubin Ultra / Kyber will be delayed until 2028, putting pressure on related power supply, switch, and optical module suppliers.

SemiAnalysis holds a relatively positive outlook on companies like Amphenol, Vertiv, and Legrand, while being more cautious about Lumentum, Himax, Navitas, and Wolfspeed.

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