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Tomorrow evening will usher in this week's most heavyweight economic data—the US May CPI inflation report, with Wall Street currently expecting the overall CPI to rise 4.2% year-over-year and core CPI to increase 2.9% year-over-year. Market sentiment has already shifted significantly towards risk aversion; if the actual data exceeds expectations, it will directly reinforce the Fed's expectation of "maintaining high interest rates for longer," likely triggering a new round of market sell-offs.
Looking back at last Friday's market, it was the worse-than-expected non-farm payrolls data that caused a sharp correction across the entire market. The impact of this CPI data will far surpass that of non-farm payrolls because it directly determines the policy direction of the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 meeting next week. This quarterly meeting will also release the latest economic forecasts and interest rate dot plots, which will have a more profound impact on global financial markets.
On the operational level, investors are advised to take partial profits on short positions tonight and keep their core holdings to observe tomorrow's data performance; for long positions, absolute patience is required, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing. From a technical perspective, the current bullish rally has already ended, with long, medium, and short-term cycles all entering a bearish trend. To regain the initiative, bulls must undergo a sufficient decline correction, forming a solid bottom structure below before they can have the conditions to push higher again.