Wintermute: The drop below $62k for Bitcoin was not caused by Strategy selling, the real selling pressure comes from US institutions

Market maker Wintermute released a weekly market analysis report stating that Bitcoin fell below $62k last week, a weekly decline of about 14%, hitting a new low since September 2024. Wintermute believes that although Strategy founder Michael Saylor disclosed the sale of 32 BTC, which drew market attention, this transaction was insignificant in scale. The true reason for market weakness is the continued reduction of holdings by US institutional investors and outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Wintermute pointed out that in May, the US added 172k non-farm jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of about 80k, while job vacancies rose to a nearly two-year high, and the service sector price index hit a new high since August 2022. Strong economic data weakened market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, pushing the 10-year US Treasury yield up to 4.55%, creating a macro environment of “good news is bad news,” putting pressure on risk assets.
Meanwhile, the rally in AI concept stocks has slowed, with the Nasdaq down 4.7% for the week, and the S&P 500 experiencing its first weekly decline since March. Wintermute believes that the AI sector's correction, rising yields, and the upcoming SpaceX IPO collectively weakened market risk appetite.
In the crypto market, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days as of May 30, with a total outflow of about $2.97 billion. In May alone, net outflows reached $2.43 billion, the worst monthly performance since 2026. Wintermute OTC data shows that retail funds continue to flow into US stocks, while US institutional investors have recently turned bearish and are leading the sell-off.
However, Wintermute believes there are also positive signals in the market, including that long-term funds are gradually building positions at current prices, and from a perspective of over a year, Bitcoin's risk-reward ratio is becoming more attractive. The report points out that the SpaceX IPO on June 12 will serve as an important indicator of market risk appetite; if the issuance is smoothly absorbed, it may help boost market sentiment; conversely, it could further pressure risk assets. $BTC
{spot}(BTCUSDT)