Trading is not about winning rate, it's about risk control. Winning nine out of ten trades, losing one with heavy position and getting wiped out, resets everything; even if you lose seven out of ten trades, taking small losses and holding onto big gains, you can still steadily recover over the long term. This morning, Bitcoin first surged to a high of 63,832 but couldn't hold, dropping sharply to 62,381. During the decline, trading volume was high, and sell-offs were heavy; after reaching the low, many bought the dip and pushed the price back up quickly. Now it’s stable around 63,375 with slight sideways movement, short-term trend shifting from down to up, and the bullish momentum remains.

From the 4-hour chart, it’s clear that Bitcoin previously dropped from nearly 70k, bottoming out at 59,080 before rebounding. Currently, the price is hovering slightly above the middle Bollinger Band at 62,200. The upper Bollinger Band at 64,422 presents strong resistance; previous attempts to push higher failed, and the bullish momentum is weakening. Although the MACD still shows green bars, the upward momentum is gradually diminishing. The entire rebound lacked sustained volume increase, indicating a weak correction after the decline, with no continuous capital inflow for longs. The overall long-term downtrend remains unchanged; this rebound is just a brief respite after a sharp fall. As long as the price cannot hold above 64,400 resistance, the rebound will end and the price will resume falling. Future support levels are likely to be at the middle Bollinger Band or even lower, so the current bias is mainly bearish based on the upper resistance.

Bitcoin short at around 64,000, target 63,000, and if broken, target 62,500.
Ethereum short at around 1,720, target support at 1,680, and if broken, target $BTC 1,640.