TradFi market peak + four-year Bitcoin cycle thought

Wait until the end of this year before quitting crypto
Quitting right now might be too early if you believe the following:
1. TradFi markets have likely peaked (or are in late-stage speculation)
In the coming weeks/months, any loss of momentum in AI infra stocks could confirm this. I wouldn’t rotate capital into stocks here. We appear to be at the end of the speculation regime i.e. smart money in TradFi is more likely taking profits than aggressively buying.
Expect a Q3 retrace, followed by a potential Q4 bounce. Switching from crypto to stocks at this point could simply mean losing money in a different asset class.
2. The four-year BTC cycle points to a Q3/Q4 2026 bottom
If you follow historical four-year halving cycles, BTC’s low for this cycle is expected around Q3–Q4 2026 (often cited as October–December).
That means we could still go lower before the next leg up.
Combining both ideas:
BTC is unlikely to decouple strongly upward against TradFi flows in Q3. Instead, it should follow broader liquidity trends and recover more strongly later in the year or into 2027.
These scenarios are playing out in real time. If you feel like you’ve already wasted years in crypto, consider sticking around a bit longer, it might still be worth it.