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Some people believe that if MicroStrategy sells only a small amount this time, it would constitute a major negative signal—suggesting that the company will continue to dump assets nonstop afterward.
But if it sells a large amount all at once (such as $3 billion), it could instead be seen as a positive, because this money happens to cover the interest expenses for the next two years, meaning there would be no need to sell again in the following two years.
This view is worth questioning.
Whether it sells a large amount at once or keeps selling in batches, both are essentially negative: the former is like cutting with one decisive stroke, while the latter is like slicing losses with a dull knife—over the long run, both will create ongoing pressure on market confidence.
More importantly, it is almost impossible for MicroStrategy to truly carry out a “one-time sale that covers interest for many years.”
It is like a company announcing, “We will sell assets once and pay three years of interest.” The reasonable reaction from the outside world would not be relief, but vigilance: why does it need to handle such a large volume of assets all at once? Does this mean the pressure to redeem principal later will be greater? Has it become unable to cover its debts through normal operations?
Put yourself in the creditor’s position: if you lend money to a company to support its operations and then suddenly hear that the company is having difficulty paying interest and needs to resolve the issue by selling off core assets, your first reaction is unlikely to be “finally, they can pay the interest.” Instead, you would likely worry that the company’s operating ability has a fundamental problem—whether the principal is safe in the future.
Returning to the event itself: if MicroStrategy were to sell Bitcoin in a one-time transaction that covers interest for many years, outsiders would easily form the following associations—has a major liquidity crisis emerged inside the company? Has it become hard to generate enough cash flow through normal business? Is it not far from more severe debt problems? These doubts would directly intensify the market’s perception of risk.
Pure financial investors without an operating background may focus more on positions and fund flows; but people with experience in real industries tend to judge using the logic of how the business operates: this money is not the company’s own funds—it comes from leveraged financing. Once it needs to liquidate large-scale assets to “pay interest,” the signal it sends is usually negative rather than positive.
There is only one real positive: a complete stop to selling.
However, even if it does not sell, this “hidden landmine” is always there—the only uncertainty is when it will go off.
For ordinary investors, the key is to make risk assessments in advance—before the mine explodes, the market may already have suffered a significant pullback, or investors may have successfully exited with profits.
In short, the core of MicroStrategy’s selling actions is not a technical question of “selling more or less,” but the persistent deleveraging pressure caused by its high-leverage model.
Such pressure is difficult to eliminate fundamentally in the short term. Investors need to stay rational and independently evaluate the risks.