Patience until Wednesday's CPI brings a big wave of volatility!

The trend of the global markets on Monday can be summarized in one sentence: seemingly peaceful and prosperous, but actually full of danger at every turn.
First, U.S. stocks rose, but for now, this can only be defined as a "false rebound."
The rebound was driven by two pieces of news simultaneously: one from the Middle East, where Iran and Israel paused their ceasefire; and a good news from AI, where Google awarded Intel over 3 million dedicated AI chip orders in 2028.
These two pieces of news directly hit the market's two main lines, but none of the three major U.S. stock indices closed with gains exceeding 1%, indicating market confidence has not yet returned.
The most significant narrative "trump card" was revealed, but it only resulted in a weak and powerless slight increase.
It can only be said that this is a "polite rise," with a hint of humility.
Second, based on closing figures, the danger alert has not been lifted: oil prices remain above $90, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is above 4.5%, the 30-year Treasury yield is above 5%, and the dollar index stays at the 100 level.
Commodities (oil), currencies (dollar index), and risk-free assets (U.S. Treasuries) are all entrenched in trenches of tightening, high inflation, and high interest rates.
Third, good news is that the Wall Street fear index VIX has fallen below 20 (closing at 18.92), easing the sense of suffocation in the market.
If it can fall below 18 today (indicating large-scale withdrawal of long hedge positions), it would suggest a positive development in the situation.
Fourth, another piece of good news is that Wall Street's interpretation of last Friday's non-farm payroll data has taken a different tone—many analysts believe that unless inflation expectations further rise, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates.
At least, more non-farm and CPI data are needed before the Fed decides on the next move; the market's current worries are premature.
This logic appears reassuring on the surface, but it cleverly plays a "concept switch" in logic: the core risk now is not whether the Fed will "raise rates," but rather that the market cannot bear the Fed "not cutting rates, and even maintaining high rates for a long time."
Tuesday's performance of U.S. stocks is extremely critical: if it "opens low and goes lower," it will confirm that Monday's rebound was a "bear trap" behavior of a "downtrend continuation."
If it oscillates sideways, it indicates that all market funds are fully locked and lying flat, quietly waiting for the "ultimate verdict" of the U.S. May CPI data on Wednesday.
Economists predict that U.S. core CPI for May will increase by 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.4% in April, but year-on-year, the increase will rise from 2.8% to 2.9%.