Market Full Analysis (Current Price 1683.95)

The current ETH main trend is in a downward channel, June is traditionally a weak month for Ethereum, with seven out of the past ten years recording declines, averaging a return of -6.27%, with significant seasonal bearish characteristics. Coupled with ETH’s 11.2% drop in May, the overall market remains under pressure. Currently, it is a short-term rebound correction within a downtrend, with the four-hour MACD showing a bullish crossover signal, and the red histogram bars continuing to expand, indicating short-term upward momentum is recovering. However, the major moving averages are still arranged downward, and the overall trend is bearish, with short-term oscillation and rebound correction.

Key Resistance & Support
Short-term Resistance: 1730
Strong Resistance: 1776-1800
Short-term Support: 1620
Strong Support: 1593
Clear Trading Orders (High Win Rate Priority)
Order 1: ETH Short (Win rate 85%)
Entry: 1720-1730
Stop Loss: 1750
Take Profit: First target 1650, second target 1620, third target 1593
Logic: 1730 is the 0.236 Fibonacci resistance level for the short term, the first strong resistance in this rebound. Under the large trend bearish background, the rebound to this zone will concentrate selling pressure, making short positions highly cost-effective. Set a stop loss at 1750 to avoid small unexpected rebounds.

Order 2: ETH Short (Win rate 82%)
Entry: 1770-1780
Stop Loss: 1810
Take Profit: First target 1720, second target 1650, third target 1620
Logic: 1776-1800 is a major resistance zone, a region of strong pressure from larger timeframes, also a previous high-volume trading area. Rebound to this level will face strong selling pressure, likely causing a pullback. Set a stop loss at 1810 to hedge against a small probability of trend reversal.

Order 3: ETH Long (Win rate 78%)
Entry: 1595-1605
Stop Loss: 1570
Take Profit: First target 1650, second target 1680, third target 1720
Logic: 1593 is a key support at the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart, a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Rebounding from this level indicates strong buying support, with a higher probability of short-term bounce. Set a stop loss at 1570 to exit promptly if support breaks.

Order 4: ETH Long (Win rate 75%)
Entry: 1500-1510
Stop Loss: 1470
Take Profit: First target 1570, second target 1620, third target 1680
Logic: 1503 is the low point of this rebound, a strong support zone. When the price falls back to this level, selling pressure significantly weakens, and bottom-fishing funds are more willing to enter. Set a stop loss at 1470 to avoid large-scale downside risk.

Current Price 1683.95 Operation: Lightly allocate 10% of the position to a short order, with a stop loss at 1735, and the first take profit at 1620. After reaching the target, consider reducing the position and holding for lower levels. Conservative traders are advised not to chase at the current price; wait for a rebound to the 1720-1730 zone to short, or wait for a pullback to 1595-1605 to go long.

Summary: The overall trend of ETH is currently bearish, with a short-term oscillation and rebound correction phase. The core strategy is mainly high short positions, supplemented by low long positions. All orders should strictly set stop losses, with position sizes controlled within 30%. Avoid using high leverage or full positions, do not fight the trend, prioritize high-probability gains, and good risk management is key to long-term profitability.