【Bitcoin Market Quick Report: Rebound Reaches 62,800, Short Positions Ready to Enter!】

Bitcoin rebounded from 59,000 to 62,800, a gain of about 6.5%. Some are asking: Is the bottom in? Should we chase the rally?

After reading this latest article "60k Bottom vs. Bearish at 30,000: Who Is Lying in Bitcoin’s Bull-Bear Battle?", the conclusion is:

The mid-term logic is playing out: Wave 5 decline, macro bearish signals, liquidity tightening—these factors are gaining momentum over a 6-12 month horizon. ETF outflows continue, MicroStrategy reduces holdings, miners are selling, Japan’s rate hike countdown is on—each straw adds pressure.

A 90% probability that 60k is not the bottom of this bear market, but a consolidation during the decline.

This is not a trend reversal; it’s a technical rebound driven by short covering. The 62,500-63,500 zone is the short position entry area.

The rebound has occurred, and going short now is a good trading strategy!

Below, I will analyze each key point:

1. An overview of core data.

ETF continuous net outflows: 14 consecutive trading days
Total ETF outflows since May 15: about $4.4 billion
June 6 ETF net outflow: about $210 million (BlackRock IBIT outflow of $213 million)

This week’s total liquidations: about $7 billion

U.S. May Non-Farm Payrolls: +172k vs. expected +85k
Probability of rate hikes before year-end: about 70-80%

Japan’s June rate hike probability: over 90% (June 15-16)
Fear & Greed Index: about 11 (Extreme Fear)

2. Nature of the rebound: short covering, not a reversal.

Price rebounded from 59,000 to 62,800, but volume did not significantly increase during the rebound. In the past 24 hours, volume was about 16,400 BTC, notably below the 7-day average.

This is a typical technical rebound driven by short covering. Shorts took profits below 60,000, pushing prices higher, but new buying interest has not entered.

Volume during the rebound is clearly weaker than during the decline, with buyers much weaker than sellers. This is not a trend reversal signal.

3. Why is around 62,800 the short position entry zone?

First, technical analysis: The 62,800 area has formed obvious resistance, with multiple rejections. The 4-hour chart shows prices below all moving averages, which are arranged downward. The daily structure from 77,300 to 59,786 shows consecutive lower highs and lower lows; the current rebound has not broken the downtrend structure.

Second, on-chain data: ETF outflows have continued for 14 days, totaling about $4.4 billion, setting a record for the longest streak. Whales holding 1,000-10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to large net selling, with a year-to-date change of about -188k BTC. Listed miners sold over 19k BTC in one week. Passive buy orders are being overwhelmed by active selling.

Third, macro environment: U.S. May non-farm payrolls added 172k (far exceeding the expected 85k), with the probability of rate hikes before year-end soaring to 70-80%. The Bank of Japan’s June rate hike probability exceeds 90% (June 15-16). June 10 CPI, June 11 World Cup opening, June 15-16 Japan rate hike, June 16-17 FOMC—four major events are densely packed.

4. Bitcoin trading strategy.

Mid-term direction: Wave 5 decline is still ongoing; the main strategy is to short on rallies.

Short position entry: at 62,800, with a stop loss of 1,200 points

Short-term target: 60,800

5. Final warm reminder.

The 60,000 level has been effectively broken down, the first time since October 2024. The current rebound to 62,800 is a technical rebound after breaking key support, not a trend reversal.

The rebound highs are gradually decreasing, and bullish volume is waning. It is estimated that by June 8-9 at the earliest, or mid-next week at the latest, the 60,000 level will be tested again and may be broken decisively.

60,000 is the first stop, 55,000-58,000 is the second, and 42,000-45,000 is the final destination.

A rebound is an opportunity to short, not a reason to buy the dip. Don’t think the bull market has returned just because it’s rallied a few thousand dollars.