Where is the flaw in the logic that BTC, which fell to 35,000, is a mistake?

┈➤Seeking the Sword by Carving a Boat
Some big players firmly believe BTC will fall to 35,000. Brother Feng guesses that this logic is that each cycle BTC drops about 80% from the top.
From 2022 to 2026, BTC rose from 15,000 to 126,000, an increase of 111,000.
A retracement of 80% would be 88,800, so 126,000 - 88,800 = 37,200.
┈➤Where is the flaw?
Since it’s about carving a boat to seek the sword, the top of BTC’s rise should also follow some pattern.
╰✦BTC’s peak did not meet expectations
In 2026, there are two expectations for BTC’s top: the optimistic one is 19,000, and some believe it could reach 140,000, but very few think it could reach 120,000.
In other words, BTC might not have risen to the peak predicted by the “carving a boat to seek the sword” logic.
MVRV, the previous three bull markets can be connected with a line, but the 2026 top is distant from this line, indicating BTC did not reach the expected high point predicted by the “carving a boat to seek the sword” logic.
When rising, it did not follow the pattern; when falling, should we still follow the pattern?
┈➤Reasons why BTC’s high point is underwhelming
The underwhelming high point of BTC can also be explained. One reason is the lack of altcoins, similar to the reason that macro liquidity restrictions are at play.
If Trump hadn’t imposed tariffs, US CPI might have already fallen back by 2025, and the Federal Reserve could have started a continuous cycle of rate cuts in 2025, making liquidity less tight, and BTC’s peak could have been higher.
Don’t use the US stock market as an example, because it has profits from listed companies.
And don’t say M2 is large, because for speculative markets like crypto, what matters is the growth rate of M2 and the resulting liquidity spillover. But 2025 is clearly not ideal.
From the chart, it’s evident that the M2 annual growth rate in 2025 is at a historic low, similar to 2018, significantly lower than 2017, and completely incomparable to 2021.
┈➤Speculative capital flow
Looking at the 80% retracement logic in reverse, 20% are steadfast investors.
The other 80% are speculative funds.
Speculative funds not only flow out during bear markets but also drive the rise during bull markets through inflows.
As previously analyzed, the reason for the underwhelming high point of this BTC cycle is macro liquidity. And the impact of macro liquidity on BTC investment and speculation is clearly more significant for the latter.
So, in this cycle of 2025, with less inflow of speculative funds, does that necessarily mean 80% will still flow out?