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The collapse of the last crypto bear market was caused by a bunch of crypto VC firms, institutions, and exchanges.
FTX's explosion, Luna dropping straight to zero from the top five by market cap.
Many institutions that seemed very impressive at the time, only to realize later that their underlying assets were all leverage, credit, and bubbles.
When the market was good, they packaged it as "balance sheet revolution," "company reserves for new narratives," "never selling coins," and so on, each sounding more sophisticated than the last.
During the bull market, everyone thought these were genius operations, financial innovations, and a new era of corporate asset allocation.
But when the bear market hits and coins fall, and there's no way to step on the left foot while the right foot is down, all the problems come to light.
MSTR is best praying that the bear market can continue to raise funds or that it can survive with a high-interest cost of around 12%.
Otherwise?
Should they sell their coins?
Pay off their debts?
Pay the interest?
If the coin price drops below the cost line, they have to sell at a loss to pay back principal and interest.
The last round of explosions involved FTX, Luna, Three Arrows, BlockFi—these on-chain leverage and institutional credit.
This round, it might be these DAT narratives disguised as listed companies that blow up.
And MSTR and a few big accounts like Tom's "the heroes in name, cowards in reality" are just the leaders.
Behind them, there are a bunch of follow-along small "the heroes in name, cowards in reality."
Essentially, these companies are not really doing reserves.
They are just following the trend, finding a narrative, and boosting their stock prices.
Some are so caught up that they deceive themselves, and now that the tide is receding, they realize they can't hold on much longer.