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Even the stars can't withstand it.
Last night I watched Starry's live stream, I think he's a good person, quite sincere, someone who patiently answers many questions from his own perspective, and also admits to issues with market judgment and position management.
Many people criticizing him are completely unnecessary; following his trades or copying his trades is their own decision.
If you have the ability, just play on your own.
#纳指跌4.18%创逾一年最大单日跌幅 Back to the market, let's start with the conclusion: I believe this round of correction has already ended.
The market is very pessimistic, but I think it shouldn't be.
As a trader, you must have your own ideas and viewpoints:
1. Macroeconomics: Last Friday's non-farm payrolls were a negative factor, with December's rate hike directly jumping to 80%.
U.S. stocks and gold dropped sharply in response.
Next week, there will be CPI data, and various other data are all bearish.
But think about what the main view of the Federal Reserve Chair was before taking office?
It's about cutting rates and shrinking the balance sheet, and they believe the Fed relies too much on lagging data.
We've discussed this earlier, so I won't elaborate again.
Considering the mid-term elections in the second half of the year and Waller just taking office, they will definitely implement his views.
So, is current data important? Not really.
The market and the Fed are heading in completely opposite directions.
At this point, the Fed will gradually send signals and slowly reverse the market's view.
I think this timeline is approaching because the window of opportunity is running out!
2. From indicators and candlesticks: Since 1011, we are in a three-wave correction.
This time, the rebound from 60k to 82k.
My previous target was 78-82k, then look for a downward wave.
But since it reached 82k, then 60k can be considered the bottom of this cycle.
The middle range between 60k and 82k is around 71k.
So I plan to close my short around 72k and wait for signals to re-enter.
It's a 50/50 situation: if it goes up, I can short at 75-76k; if it goes down, I can go long near 60k.
Other levels have no reference points.
The current market support is at 58k.
The last low held at 60k, so breaking 60k isn't a big deal.
I believe the final correction will be around 58-62k.
Once it breaks 62k, I can start building positions, but at most.
Currently holding long positions, based on monthly and weekly rebounds, and it might even reach previous highs.
3. Capital and liquidity issues:
Since 1011, liquidity problems in the crypto space have become obvious.
U.S. stocks kept hitting new highs, but BTC kept declining.
Liquidity in the crypto market has been squeezed continuously.
But last Friday, despite a big drop in U.S. stocks, BTC held up pretty well.
I judge that BTC had already completed its move early, so it didn't fall much.
Of course, Ethereum's weekend dip surprised me—it's simply ridiculous.
This cycle has been too weak, it might as well be removed from the list.
Now everyone is worried about what will happen if U.S. stocks continue to fall.
Actually, it's not necessarily fully correlated.
Just like U.S. stocks hitting new highs, BTC didn't follow.
The market cap of U.S. stocks is around 70 trillion, while the crypto market isn't even 2 trillion.
When U.S. stocks fall and gold drops, funds will flow out.
A little of that flowing into crypto can create a different market trend.
So, liquidity issues in Bitcoin are already at this level, no need to overthink.
There's not much room for further decline.
Anyway, just hold onto your chips now—our future is definitely ours!
#Gate携手Alpaca链接数字资产与股票金融交易 $BTC $ETH