Golden Week Review: Non-Farm Payrolls Deal a Heavy Blow, Breaking Through 4330—Life or Death at 4300!

This week, gold continued to trade weakly. On Friday, it was hit hard by non-farm payroll data that came in above expectations, causing rate-hike expectations to jump sharply. Gold prices then plunged in a straight drop, with the low reaching 4312. The daily chart closed with a bare-headed bearish candle (a doji-like/“no-haircut” bearish close), and the short-side positioning is clearly in control.

Current Market Analysis:

**Trend:** Since the pullback from the historic high of 5596, it has entered the bottom-finding phase following the third round of decline. With price now hugging the 4300 integer level, this is the bulls’ final line of defense.

**Key Area:** 4300-4274 is a strong liquidation-support zone that has held up over the past two years. As long as it doesn’t break, there is still a chance to lean on this level and ride the hope of pushing toward 4700. If it effectively breaks, the downside space will be completely opened.

**Short-Term Resistance:** The resistance above 4340-4350 has formed and acts as a headwind, while the stronger resistance has shifted down to 4370.

**Next Week Outlook & Plan:**

**Short-Term:** Below 4400, the main setup is short positions, with long positions also considered to play rebounds. Focus on how strong the bounce is.

**Swing Trade:** Wait patiently for stabilization signals in the 4300-4274 zone (such as long lower wicks or a bullish candle that engulfs a prior bearish candle). Once geopolitical or policy developments land, it will be a favorable opportunity to set up mid-term long positions.

⚠️ **Reminder:** On Monday, keep an eye on the opening gap. If 4300 breaks, then follow through to watch 4274-4245.