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Two algorithmic methods to estimate the low point of Bitcoin's main downward wave 3:
Algorithm 1: Referencing the retracement ratios of the previous two waves.
Main downward wave 1: 126209 - 80600 = 45,609, retracement ratio: 45609 / 126209 = 0.361
Main downward wave 2: 97932 - 59800 = 38,132 (actual decline of 38,132 points), retracement ratio: 38132 / 97932 = 0.389
Forecasting main downward wave 3, using the previous two waves' retracement ratios 0.36 and 0.38:
Low point 1: 82828 - (82828 * 0.36) = 53,000
Low point 2: 82828 - (82828 * 0.38) = 51,353
Algorithm 2: Fibonacci retracement ratios.
Main downward wave 1: 126209 - 80600 = 45,609
45609 * 0.382 = 17,422.638
Projected rebound position:
80600 + 17422 = 98,022
Actual rebound reached 97,932, close to the 0.382 retracement level.
Possible decline for the second projected downward wave:
80600 - 97932 = -17,332 (rebounded 17,332 points)
17332 * 1.382 = 23,952.824
17332 * 1.5 = 25,998
17332 * 1.618 = 28,043.176
17332 * 2 = 34,664
17332 * 2.214 = 38,373.048
Decline estimate for the second main downward wave:
97932 - 23952 = 73,980
97932 - 25998 = 71,934
97932 - 28043 = 69,889
97932 - 34664 = 63,268
97933 - 38373 = 59,560 (actually declined to 59,800, matching Fibonacci point 2.214)
Main downward wave 2: 97932 - 59800 = 38,132 (decline of 38,132 points)
59800 - 82828 = -23,028 (rebounded 23,028 points)
Projected decline for main downward wave 3:
23028 * 0.618 = 14,231.304
23028 * 1 = 23,028
23028 * 1.382 = 31,824.696
23028 * 1.5 = 34,542
23028 * 1.618 = 37,259.304
23028 * 2 = 46,056
Potential retracement levels for main downward wave 3:
82828 - 23028 = 59,800
82828 - 31824 = 51,004 (breaks previous low, at 1.382 retracement level)
82828 - 34542 = 48,286 (at 1.50 retracement level)
82828 - 37259 = 45,569 (at 1.618 retracement level)
82828 - 46056 = 36,772 (at 2.0 retracement level)
Note: The 1.382 retracement level at 51,004 is close to Algorithm 1's 51,353, indicating a higher probability of bottoming near this level. Additionally, Bitcoin's quarterly Bollinger middle band at 56,600 is a significant support. Therefore, after breaking below 59,000, initial support levels are set at 56,666 and 52,000.