Is Bitcoin nearing its bottom? Loss-making chips have surpassed profit-making chips for the first time; Standard Chartered research director says the bottom is approaching

Since May 2026, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a sharp correction, with Bitcoin's largest decline exceeding 22%. On June 4th, Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin's bottom "has almost been formed," and the current price range could be a long-anticipated buying opportunity for investors. As of June 4th, 2026, according to Gate's market data, Bitcoin's price briefly dropped to around $61,400 USD. On-chain data shows that the number of BTC in unrealized loss reached approximately 10.5 million coins, surpassing the amount of coins in profit for the first time. This phenomenon has historically coincided with significant market bottoms multiple times.

Why does Standard Chartered believe Bitcoin's bottom is near?

Kendrick's core reasoning is not based on a single price factor but on two structural observations. First, the holdings of spot Bitcoin ETFs have remained relatively stable since February this year, without the large-scale fund outflows that market concerns previously feared. This indicates that ETF investors' holdings are more resilient than expected, avoiding panic selling during the decline. Second, despite Bitcoin falling over 22% in the past month, on-chain activity and long-term holder behavior have not shown extreme divergence. Kendrick maintains a target price of $100k for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum by the end of the year, and points out that "gradual accumulation at this stage is more reasonable than trying to precisely bottom." This assessment distinguishes short-term market noise from medium-term supply and demand dynamics, providing an institutional-level analytical basis for the bottom hypothesis.

How can small-scale selling by Strategy become a potential bottoming signal?

An important trigger for this correction was Strategy selling 32 BTC. In terms of quantity, 32 Bitcoin is negligible relative to the market size, but the market interprets this as a signal of institutional behavior shifting. Kendrick compared this to historical experience at the end of 2022: after similar-scale disposals, Strategy quickly made larger-scale repurchases. He estimates that this buyback could be 10 to 100 times the amount sold previously. If Strategy confirms buying in the coming weeks, it would form a clear institutional replenishment signal, indicating that large coin holders believe current prices are attractive. This "small sell, big buy" pattern has repeatedly served as a leading indicator of market bottoms in past cycles.

What does the first surpassing of unrealized loss chips over profit chips signal historically?

On June 4th, Glassnode data showed that as Bitcoin briefly fell to around $61,300 USD, the number of BTC in unrealized loss rose to about 10.5 million coins, surpassing the 9.8 million coins in profit for the first time, accounting for over half of circulating supply. This is the first time in this cycle that loss chips exceed profit chips. Historical data indicates that this indicator has only appeared during deep bear markets and has often coincided with major market bottoms—such as in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022. It is important to note that the timing of bottom confirmation via this indicator varies, lasting from one month to a year. Nonetheless, its appearance signifies that the market has entered a phase where "most holders are in paper unrealized losses," and in every past cycle, this state has been followed by significant price recovery.

Why does the 200-week moving average serve as a key support in past bear markets?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price during this correction touched the 200-week simple moving average (200 WMA) at about $61,300 USD. Historically, this moving average has been regarded as the long-term bull-bear dividing line. During the bottoms of 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, Bitcoin's price either found support near the 200-week average or briefly dipped below it before quickly rebounding. Currently, the price is precisely around this long-term support level, coupled with a reversal in the on-chain loss chip ratio, forming a resonant bottom structure from both technical and fundamental perspectives. Statistically, buying and holding above the 200-week average for over a year has yielded a very high success rate, though it does not guarantee future performance. It provides a quantifiable reference framework for bottoming.

If the price falls below $60k, where is the next key support?

Any bottom analysis must consider failure scenarios. Kendrick also admits that Bitcoin still faces the risk of falling below $60k. If the 200-week average at $61,300 is broken, the next significant support level would be around the realized price near $54,000 USD. The realized price is calculated as the average cost of all on-chain Bitcoin based on the last time each coin moved. Historically, during major bear markets, Bitcoin has often fallen below the realized price—such as in 2018 and 2022—and after such dips, it typically forms a final extreme bottom within weeks or months. The $54,000 area also aligns with many miners' shutdown costs and the aggregate cost basis of long-term holders. Therefore, even if the market continues to decline, this level offers strong logical support.

How does the current market structure compare to past bottoms?

Compared to the 2022 bear market bottom, the current market structure shows both differences and similarities. Similarities include: loss chips exceeding profit chips, price touching or approaching the 200-week average, and extremely pessimistic market sentiment. Differences include: the presence of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which alter the capital inflow structure; stronger resilience of institutional holdings than in previous cycles; macroeconomic conditions where Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations are in the late stage or turning; and the Bitcoin halving effect completed in 2024, with supply-side compression gradually impacting the market. These differences suggest that this cycle's bottom may not involve the extreme panic-driven sell-off seen in 2022 but could instead feature a longer period of low volatility, gradual bottoming, or laddered accumulation. This aligns with Standard Chartered's core logic that "gradual accumulation is better than trying to precisely bottom."

Why is phased accumulation preferable to precise bottoming?

From a risk management perspective, attempting to precisely catch the absolute lowest point involves high uncertainty. Historically, bottoms are confirmed in hindsight, not predicted in advance. Standard Chartered's advice to "gradually build positions at this stage" essentially acknowledges that the bottom is a range, not a point. A phased buying strategy can lower the average cost during continued declines and preserve exposure if prices reverse early. On-chain data shows that when loss chips surpass profit chips, the expected returns over the next 6 to 12 months are usually positive, though maximum drawdowns can still be significant. Therefore, employing fixed-interval or price-tiered dollar-cost averaging is more rational than heavy concentration at once or waiting for a "final dip." This approach does not rely on perfect timing but leverages probabilistic and long-term risk-reward advantages.

What signals should investors watch for to confirm a bottom?

Beyond Strategy's potential buyback, several observable signals can help confirm a bottom. First, sustained net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, rather than just stable holdings. Second, a continuous decline in the number of addresses in unrealized loss, indicating decreasing unrealized loss chips. Third, the weekly close of the 200-week average remaining above $60k USD. Fourth, if the realized price around $54,000 is touched, watch for rapid rebounds or increased trading volume. Fifth, whether derivatives market funding rates shift from negative or zero to a normal positive zone. These signals do not need to occur simultaneously, but if three or more are confirmed, the probability of a market bottom will significantly increase.

Summary

Standard Chartered's assertion that "Bitcoin's bottom is close to forming" is not based on a single forecast but on a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors, including ETF holding resilience, potential Strategy replenishment, historical on-chain loss chip signals, and technical support from the 200-week moving average. As of June 4th, 2026, with Bitcoin at $61,300 USD, the market is at a critical point where unrealized loss chips first surpass profit chips. Historical data shows this indicator often appears during deep bear market bottoms, though its duration varies. Investors should also remain cautious of the risk of testing the $54,000 realized price if the $60k level is broken. Combining institutional insights, on-chain data, and technical analysis, the current range exhibits typical bottom features, but a phased accumulation approach is more appropriate than trying to precisely catch the bottom. The ultimate confirmation of a market bottom will depend on observing buyback activity, ETF capital flows, and derivatives funding rates in the coming period.

FAQ

Q: Does Standard Chartered guarantee that Bitcoin will not make new lows?

A: No. Kendrick explicitly states that Bitcoin still faces the risk of falling below $60,000 USD. The "approaching bottom" assessment is based on probabilistic and historical patterns, not an absolute guarantee.

Q: After unrealized loss chips surpass profit chips, how long does Bitcoin usually take to bottom?

A: Historical data shows that after this indicator appears, bottom confirmation can take from one month to a year. It was relatively short in 2015 and 2019, but longer in 2022. It should not be used as a precise timing tool alone.

Q: Why does Strategy selling 32 BTC attract market attention?

A: Because Strategy is one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, and its buying and selling behavior is viewed as a sentiment indicator for institutions. Historically, after small disposals, Strategy tends to make larger-scale buybacks, which, if repeated, can serve as an important bottoming signal.

Q: What are some specific phased accumulation methods?

A: Common approaches include fixed-interval purchases (e.g., weekly fixed amounts), price-tiered buying (adding positions after certain dips), or dynamically adjusting based on on-chain indicators. The choice depends on individual risk tolerance and capital planning.

Q: Besides Standard Chartered's view, which other institutions share similar outlooks?

A: This analysis is based solely on publicly available market data and Standard Chartered's research report. Due to disclosure principles, it does not summarize or compare other institutions' positions. Investors should conduct independent judgment or consult original reports.