#ETH跌幅超5%

Cryptocurrency Market Plunge: Finding Rational Responses Amid Panic
June 4th, the crypto market continued its decline, with ETH dropping 5.58% in 24 hours, touching a low of $1,734 during the session, losing the key psychological level of $1,800; BTC also came under pressure, breaking below $63,000, with a low of $62,541. What further shocked the market was that CoinGlass data showed total liquidations across the network in 24 hours reaching $1.11B, with over 196k traders forced to liquidate, of which long positions accounted for more than 80%—a brutal shakeout at the expense of the longs.
1. Trend Analysis: The Chill Remains, Dawn Is Still Far
1. Core Drivers of This Drop: Resonance of Triple Negative Factors
This drop is not an isolated event but the result of multiple negative factors stacking and resonating:
Macro Level: U.S. inflation data rebounded, and market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts continued to be delayed. As cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to interest rates, the tightening liquidity outlook directly accelerated capital withdrawal. Meanwhile, the Middle East geopolitical conflict escalated again, putting collective pressure on global risk assets, with Bitcoin briefly falling to its lowest point since the Iran conflict erupted.
Institutional Behavior: The world’s largest Bitcoin-listed holdings strategy experienced a rare sell-off, a signal seen by the market as a turning point, accelerating the sell-off trend. CoinShares data shows that Bitcoin ETPs saw $1.43 billion outflows last week, the largest weekly outflow since 2026, with Ethereum also seeing $257 million outflow.
Internal Market Structure: A massive number of investors accumulated huge long positions above $2,000. As ETH declined from $2,100 in a downward trend, these leveraged positions triggered liquidations one after another, forming a “decline—liquidation—increased decline” negative feedback spiral. The total liquidation across the network exceeded $1.78 billion, with ETH longs accounting for over 95%.
2. Technical Perspective: Key Defense Lines Broken, Bears Take the Lead
From a technical standpoint, the market pattern has undergone a fundamental change:
ETH: Analysts previously emphasized that holding above $1,800 was crucial for maintaining any bullish outlook. ETH has now substantially broken this level, establishing a clear bearish trend technically. The next key support zone is around $1,700–$1,720. If this zone also cannot hold, the downside could further open to the $1,500–$1,650 range—current market forecasts put the probability of ETH falling to $1,500 at 71%. ETH has already fallen about 60% from its August 2025 all-time high of $4,954, and on a monthly chart, it is at a critical crossroads.
BTC: $63,000 is a key area that saw heavy buying in February and March this year. Losing this level will test support at $62,000, and if it also breaks, $58,000 will become the next important defense line. On-chain fund flows show that BTC ETFs have been net outflows for 14 consecutive days, breaking the longest outflow record since December 2025, reflecting a clear pattern of “macro hedging + tactical reduction.”
3. Future Scenario Projections: Short-term Pressure, Long-term Depends on Macro “Temperature”
Short-term (1-2 weeks): The market is likely to oscillate between panic sentiment and technical rebounds. Signs of oversold conditions have appeared, so a short-term technical rebound cannot be ruled out. However, given the market fear reflected by the plunging funding rates and leveraged positions, the rebound space is expected to be limited, with the $2,000–$2,020 range forming a tough resistance zone due to massive trapped positions.
Mid-term (1-3 months): The trend heavily depends on macro environment changes. If inflation data continues to surprise on the upside and the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, liquidity tightening will continue to suppress crypto valuations; conversely, if risk sentiment recovers and ETF fund inflows resume, the market may stage a phase bottom.
Long-term (end of year to 2030): Institutional opinions vary widely. Bloomberg Intelligence’s McGlone issued a strong technical sell signal, warning of up to 86% risk of Bitcoin plummeting; meanwhile, Standard Chartered remains optimistic, expecting ETH to reach $4,000 by the end of 2026 and $40k by 2030, citing ongoing developments in stablecoin settlements and RWA tokenization.
2. Practical Trading Strategies: Survive First in Extreme Conditions
1. Position Diagnosis and Adjustment—Start with “Subtraction,” then “Addition”
In the face of a plunge, the first question isn’t “Should I buy the dip,” but rather assessing your current position and identifying where you stand in this “liquidation chain”:
If holding high-leverage positions: No matter how optimistic you are about the future, you must face a harsh reality—the market’s short-term trend is not subject to individual wishes. The rapid decline in funding rates confirms that bears hold the pricing dominance. Without safety buffers, holding on is akin to gambling. Rational choice now is to reduce positions or cut losses, at least lowering leverage to below 3x before the market stabilizes.
If experiencing large unrealized losses but no leverage: Do not panic sell in this situation. History shows that rushing to sell in extreme panic is often the worst choice. Consider “lying flat,” reducing market monitoring, and waiting for emotions to settle before making decisions.
If holding ample cash and maintaining a steady mindset: A window for mid- to long-term positioning may open after the sharp decline, but it’s not the time now. “Catching a falling knife” is a major trading taboo. True bottoms are rarely a single price point but a combination of conditions: declining volume, digesting panic, normalized funding rates, and clear signs of stabilization on the right side. Patience is more valuable than reckless action.
2. Asset Reallocation—Shift from “Heavy Bet” to “Defensive Focus”
Before a clear trend emerges, asset allocation should prioritize stability and defense:
Use BTC as the “cornerstone” of your crypto portfolio: In bear or sideways markets, Bitcoin’s liquidity and resilience outperform altcoins, making it an essential core holding. This cycle’s smaller decline compared to ETH and many altcoins further confirms this.
Focus on defensive assets: Platform tokens (like BNB) with real business support tend to be more resilient; when signs of a phase stabilization appear, Bitcoin ETFs can be a convenient tool to catch rebounds.
Timely shift into stablecoins, preserving “ammunition”: Referencing professional investors’ actions during the February crash, moving some funds into stablecoins can lock in profits or reduce losses, and reserve enough “ammunition” for deploying at lower levels later.
Consider cross-asset allocation: The top priority now is survival in the crypto winter. As some investors advocate, “coin-stock dual cultivation”—during overall crypto pressure, pay attention to opportunities in traditional markets like US stocks related to AI and tokenization, using the differences among asset classes to optimize overall risk-adjusted returns.
3. Specific Position Ratio Recommendations
Based on current risk levels, the following allocation scheme is suggested:
Funding Use | Suggested Ratio | Applicable Conditions
Stablecoins (cash equivalents) | 40%-50% | Keep as “ammunition” reserve, wait for right-side signals
Core BTC position | 25%-35% | Defensive anchor in the crypto portfolio
Strategic ETH position | 10%-15% | Gradual accumulation, avoid heavy single buys
Other defensive assets (platform tokens, etc.) | 5%-10% | Moderate diversification, avoid overconcentration
High-volatility/leverage trading | 0% | Do not participate at this stage
Important reminder: The above are only reference ideas. Each investor’s risk tolerance, capital situation, and holdings differ. In actual operations, please make cautious decisions based on your own circumstances and avoid blindly following trends.
Conclusion: Pessimists are smart, optimists succeed, but only those who survive can witness
Every deep correction in the crypto market acts like a mirror, clearly reflecting each person’s risk management and awareness.
ETH, after halving from its $4,954 high, has fallen nearly 60%, a painful and lengthy process. But from a longer-term perspective, Ethereum still holds structural advantages in key areas like stablecoin settlement, RWA tokenization, and AI-driven applications. Long-term optimistic forecasts from institutions like Standard Chartered are not unfounded.
However, “long-term optimism” does not mean ignoring short-term risks. Before a true trend reversal, survival is the foundation of all gains. Controlling positions, holding cash, reducing leverage, and cultivating the right mindset are essential to gaining the initiative when the next cycle arrives.
Remember: The market is never short of profit opportunities; what’s missing is your ability to seize them when they come.