#美股财报季 #Gate广场万圣节 Tesla: Earnings beat expectations, yet the stock closed lower—is this an unjustified selloff?
This isn’t an earnings collapse; the market is repricing the “cost of the transition period.”
Break down the numbers, and it’s really a case of “good earnings, bad stock performance.”
- Revenue was $28 billion, flat YoY; net income was $787 million, down 43%—the money wasn’t lost, it was eaten up by R&D: R&D was $2.76 billion (+69%), and operating expenses rose 39% overall.
- But gross margins are rising: automotive gross margin excluding credits was 18.1% (16.7% expected), energy storage gross margin soared to 33.1%, and Megapack capacity for 2027 is basically sold out.
- Free cash flow was +$1.5 billion (market expectation: -$4.4 billion), and cash stood at $45.4 billion—plenty of cushion.
The truly valuable change is in the “revenue mix”:
- FSD paid subscribers reached 1.74 million (+67%); 75% of new vehicles in North America are optioned with FSD—the car-selling business is turning into a subscription business;
- The Austin Cybercab fleet has logged nearly 2 million miles of unsupervised driving, an 8x increase in one quarter, with a launch in Dallas next month.
Why did the stock fall?
There’s only one reason: capex was cut from $25 billion to $20 billion. The market interpreted this as “pushing back the profitability timelines for Robotaxi/Optimus.” This isn’t a cut to the vision, but a cut to the pace.
Risks: BYD’s all-electric vehicle sales led by 300,000+ in the first three quarters, and Chinese automakers have overtaken Tesla in gross margin; Musk himself said Optimus mass production is “at least another year away”; Robotaxi expansion is held up by regulatory approvals.
Watch three near-term catalysts—the pace of launches in new cities like Dallas, whether net FSD subscription additions can continue, and whether Q4 cash flow stays positive.
The valuation already prices in the next ten years (Morgan Stanley’s price target is $410), making this a high-volatility transition stock that “uses the present to fund the future”—suited to tracking and validating, not going all-in on the story. #每周来晒
This isn’t an earnings collapse; the market is repricing the “cost of the transition period.”
Break down the numbers, and it’s really a case of “good earnings, bad stock performance.”
- Revenue was $28 billion, flat YoY; net income was $787 million, down 43%—the money wasn’t lost, it was eaten up by R&D: R&D was $2.76 billion (+69%), and operating expenses rose 39% overall.
- But gross margins are rising: automotive gross margin excluding credits was 18.1% (16.7% expected), energy storage gross margin soared to 33.1%, and Megapack capacity for 2027 is basically sold out.
- Free cash flow was +$1.5 billion (market expectation: -$4.4 billion), and cash stood at $45.4 billion—plenty of cushion.
The truly valuable change is in the “revenue mix”:
- FSD paid subscribers reached 1.74 million (+67%); 75% of new vehicles in North America are optioned with FSD—the car-selling business is turning into a subscription business;
- The Austin Cybercab fleet has logged nearly 2 million miles of unsupervised driving, an 8x increase in one quarter, with a launch in Dallas next month.
Why did the stock fall?
There’s only one reason: capex was cut from $25 billion to $20 billion. The market interpreted this as “pushing back the profitability timelines for Robotaxi/Optimus.” This isn’t a cut to the vision, but a cut to the pace.
Risks: BYD’s all-electric vehicle sales led by 300,000+ in the first three quarters, and Chinese automakers have overtaken Tesla in gross margin; Musk himself said Optimus mass production is “at least another year away”; Robotaxi expansion is held up by regulatory approvals.
Watch three near-term catalysts—the pace of launches in new cities like Dallas, whether net FSD subscription additions can continue, and whether Q4 cash flow stays positive.
The valuation already prices in the next ten years (Morgan Stanley’s price target is $410), making this a high-volatility transition stock that “uses the present to fund the future”—suited to tracking and validating, not going all-in on the story. #每周来晒
