My biggest recent takeaway: I can’t hold spot positions, and with contracts I always end up wanting to “make a bit more.” The result is that when I should be taking action, I get restless; when I should be taking profits, I end up holding on. In the end, one last needle can puncture and blow up the whole position. Put simply, position management is just one human truth: first assume you’ll make a mistake, and then make sure that even when you do make one, that mistake won’t get you knocked out. Spot should be split into two buckets—“I’m willing to lie low for a while” and “I just want to catch some volatility.” For the first, don’t stare at the charts; for the second, set from the start the maximum you’re willing to lose, and exit once you hit it. Contracts are even simpler: the higher the leverage, the smaller the position you should take—so small that you can sleep through it and still be alive when you wake up.

Recently, everyone has been using RWA and US Treasury yield to compare against on-chain yield products. I also looked at a few diagrams of capital flow, and the more I look, the more convinced I get: no matter how pretty the returns look, all the uncertainty is concentrated in that tail end. Don’t confuse “stability” with a “floor.” That’s it for now.