First, the conclusion: BTC and ETH are almost impossible to go to zero, but in the short term, they can plummet by 50% or more; the vast majority of altcoins are highly likely to become worthless in the long run.

Important reminder: Our country's laws and regulations prohibit virtual currency trading and speculation. Virtual currencies are not protected by law, and there is no guarantee of principal preservation. All investment risks are borne by the investor.

1. The probability of Bitcoin going to zero is extremely low (<1%)

1. Institutional backing is solid: The US spot BTC ETF holds hundreds of billions in assets, with long-term allocations by BlackRock, JPMorgan, pension funds, and overseas sovereign funds. Many listed companies (like MicroStrategy) continue to accumulate coins. Massive real-world capital is locked in, making complete liquidation and abandonment highly unrealistic.

2. Global consensus and network: Millions of nodes and hundreds of thousands of miners operate in a distributed manner worldwide. No single company or country can shut down the entire network; after more than a decade, multiple bear markets and crashes, and strict regulations by various countries, history has seen over 470 "deaths" declared by the market, yet each major decline has been followed by recovery and growth.

3. Regulatory compliance: Legislation and regulation are gradually being implemented in the US, EU, Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, transforming from gray-area speculation to inclusion in traditional financial products.
The only extreme scenario for zero: complete global internet shutdown, quantum computers cracking encryption algorithms, all countries simultaneously and permanently banning and abandoning Bitcoin—an almost zero probability event.

2. The probability of Ethereum going to zero is very low (≈5%)

1. Industry infrastructure attribute: DeFi, on-chain NFTs, and RWA tokenization all rely on the ETH blockchain. Tens of thousands of developers continuously iterate on the ecosystem, making it the foundational infrastructure of Web3.

2. Spot ETF adoption + staking and locking: Large amounts of ETH are staked and locked on-chain, preventing sale. Institutional ETF investments continue to grow, and the application ecosystem cannot be fully replaced by new public chains in the short term.
Bearish risks include: top competing public chains fully replacing ETH, systemic critical vulnerabilities in smart contract systems, or global bans—these are far less likely than a deep crash.

3. The most critical warning: small coins, air coins, and MEME coins are very likely to go to zero

Market rule: Over 95% of altcoins ultimately trend toward zero.

• Meme coins and shitcoins with no real application, relying solely on hype: 80%–95% chance of zeroing out. During bear markets, capital flees, causing a 99% crash with no buyers left.

• Small to medium market cap new public chains: Without ongoing development and user base, once the funding dries up, they gradually become worthless. Over the years, tens of thousands of coins have already become zero dead coins.

4. Short-term risk: No, they won't go to zero, but they can drop sharply

This round of decline is just a cyclical correction caused by macro interest rate hikes, ETF redemptions, and leverage liquidations. Historically, Bitcoin's maximum bear market retracement has exceeded 85%. That means: it won't drop to zero, but a 50%–70% decline in the short term is normal. Heavy positions and leverage can easily wipe out your principal (a 1% move in futures leverage can trigger liquidation and zeroing out).

Additional regulatory risk:

In mainland China, buying and selling Bitcoin and Ethereum are considered illegal financial activities. They are not protected by law. If platforms run away or funds are stolen, legal rights cannot be enforced. This is a unique hidden risk domestically.