The traffic today was ridiculously bad—my coffee had already gone cold before I finally made it to the office… On the way, I casually checked the stablecoin supply and ETF inflow data, and the more I looked, the more it felt like everyone loves to treat “happening at the same time” as “because of this.” More stablecoins doesn’t automatically mean prices have to go up, and ETF inflows don’t necessarily mean all the off-chain money is mindlessly buying—sometimes it’s just switching channels, changing the pace.

Recently, people have been bringing up RWA, U.S. Treasury yields, and on-chain yield products again for comparison. If we put it plainly, everyone is looking for something that feels “more like risk-free.” But once that mindset kicks in, it’s easy to turn imagined correlation into causation. As for me, I’m basically treating it like the weather: cloudy days don’t necessarily mean it will rain, but I still keep an umbrella in my bag… Let’s just leave it at that.