Today’s Gold (6.3) Price Increase Probability and Range (London Gold Spot Price 4488)

Slight rebound with a 55% chance of upward movement, less than 20% chance of a large surge, mainly consolidating overall

Key Levels

Resistance: 4520→4545 (First hurdle, must break through to strengthen)
Support: 4460→4447 (Yesterday’s low, holding this level could lead to a rebound)

Two main reasons for slight upward movement

1. Support at 4450 tested twice and confirmed, yesterday’s sharp drop to 4447 quickly recovered, low-level buying support, difficult to sustain deep decline, relying on support to easily rebound and push near 4520.

2. US-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked: Iran suspends talks, Lebanon conflict unresolved, geopolitical risk aversion as a safety net, as long as there’s no sudden official announcement of a ceasefire, negative news is limited, restricting gold’s sharp decline and favoring low-level rebounds.

Reasons why a big rally is unlikely

1. Fed rate hike worries suppress: rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, US Treasury yields and the dollar remain strong, limiting gold’s upward potential, approaching 4530 may encounter resistance and pull back.

2. Non-farm payrolls due Friday, funds are cautious, major players won’t push prices higher unilaterally, rebounds are mostly short-term pulses.

Three market scenarios

1. Normal (55%): Slight upward trend, rebound from 4460, target 4515-4530, quick pullback after reaching highs, consolidating;

2. Weak (30%): Slight decline, break below 4460, drop to 4430-4420;

3. Large surge (<20%): Sudden escalation of Middle East conflict, break above 4550 heading towards 4570 or higher.

Note: News is constantly changing; the above is only an analysis of the market, not a buy or sell recommendation.