Bitcoin and the US stock market are diverging completely.

Market comparison is striking—
Bitcoin briefly fell to its lowest since April 7 on Tuesday, dropping over 4% in a single day, with nearly an 8% decline over the past 7 days. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose above 7,600 points, and the Nasdaq broke through 27,000 points, both hitting new all-time highs.
One reaching a new high, the other hitting a two-month low.
Bitrue research director Andri Fauzan Adziima pointed out—
Bitcoin is almost the only major asset class that is shrinking noticeably. The market is treating it as a high-beta risk asset driven by macro sentiment, rather than an independent safe haven. But he believes this divergence is more likely cyclical; once macro conditions improve, Bitcoin is expected to regain strength.
Santiment highlighted a phenomenon worth warning about—
The US stock market offers higher returns and lower volatility, with some funds flowing from crypto to stocks, creating a rotation of capital. But when the market generally exhibits "stock FOMO, crypto FUD" sentiment, it often indicates overly one-sided expectations—and historical experience shows that markets often move contrary to most people's expectations.
There is a key technical level—
Bitcoin is approaching the 200-week EMA, around $69k. This line has long been regarded as an important support for bull-bear cycles. Holding this level could stabilize the market; breaking below it would change the nature entirely.
When everyone is bearish on crypto and bullish on US stocks, that is precisely when we need to stay alert.
The $69k line is the most critical answer moving forward.