June 1st $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

First, I wish everyone a happy holiday and to always keep a childlike heart 🤯🤌

💰News:

Geopolitical Impact: Tensions between the US and Iran have eased (there are rumors of a 60-day ceasefire extension), traditional markets (such as stocks and bonds) have responded, but BTC risk appetite has not significantly improved and is instead dragged down by safe-haven sentiment. Weekend news was relatively calm, with no major positive stimuli.

Macro Background: Federal Reserve interest rate policy expectations, oil price fluctuations, and other macro factors still dominate. BTC has a high correlation with traditional assets and has not effectively hedged geopolitical risks.

Overall Sentiment: Weekend trading was light, and BTC performed worse than stocks, remaining in a "wait in panic" state. In the long term, institutional adoption and regulatory progress still provide potential support, but there is a lack of catalysts in the short term.

💰Funding:

ETF Capital Flows: This is currently the biggest drag. There have been continuous large outflows over multiple days/weeks in May (weekly outflows exceeding 1 billion, totaling 1.5-2.8 billion over several weeks), with net inflows in 2026 sharply shrinking to about 500 million. Major funds like BlackRock IBIT have experienced significant outflows. This reflects profit-taking or risk aversion among institutions, contrasting with the strong inflows in April.

On-chain/Derivatives: Open interest remains relatively stable but has not surged, with funding rates neutral to slightly negative (leverage not high). Long-term holders (LTH) are increasing their supply, but short-term selling pressure exists. Companies like MicroStrategy continue to buy, providing some support, but not enough to offset ETF outflows.

💰Technical:

Bitcoin’s current position still maintains a downtrend, but it’s no longer very suitable to short at this level because the four-hour timeframe has completed a three-wave decline. The next focus should be on the daily timeframe: will there be a MACD golden cross rebound? However, this rebound is unlikely to be strong. The key is whether the price can hold above 75,500. If it cannot, it will continue downward in a corrective phase.

In summary, in the short term, on the one-hour level, there may be a rebound, but overall, if it does not break 75,500, it will still move downward in a corrective phase. This corrective phase is an entry opportunity.

Support: 73,000-70,800
Resistance: 74,800-75,500