The truncated average looks nice, but can we still trust it after tariffs distort the price structure? The core PCE moving upward is the real indicator.

Dallas Fed's April truncated mean year-over-year is 2.3%, lower than March's 2.4%, seen as evidence from Waugh regarding inflation improvement.
But several economists warn it may systematically underestimate the true pressure because tariffs have changed the price distribution, with large increases in items like gasoline and airline tickets and decreases in poultry and haircuts, potentially leading to an underestimate.
Core PCE in April was 3.3% year-over-year, still rising.
Standard Chartered and Harvard's Furman and others believe that the historical and predictive power of the truncated mean are both weak.