#BTC Popular cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen has analyzed Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements and historical cycles.

Cowen stated that Bitcoin has fallen below a critical threshold on the daily chart, the bear market resistance band, and faces the risk of closing the week below the bull market support band (around $74,000, which is the 20-week moving average).

Cowen, who believes that “midterm election years” following halving events in crypto cycles are always challenging, reminded that these periods tend to be downward trending by nature. The analyst said, “These years are filled with bear market rallies where emotions peak and drive investors back into FOMO. However, the market has so far been playing out exactly as it has historically,” he said.

While noting that the rallies in 2023 have strong continuity, Cowen mentioned that the current move has not gained a lasting upward momentum, and that the recent rises before today’s decline are one of the “false breakouts” often seen in midterm periods.

Addressing the question of why Bitcoin lost value while stock markets rose, the renowned analyst attributed the situation to macroeconomic factors and the risk curve:

According to Cowen, for a bottom to form in the market, it’s less about where the price drops and more about investors’ psychological capitulation (time-based surrender). Based on historical data, the analyst outlined a roadmap, saying, “Historically, June tends to be weak in midterm years. During this period, a local bottom may be seen in the summer months (probably in June or July).” According to the analyst, a short-term rebound could occur after this bottom by the end of summer.

In September and October, the analyst suggests there could be one last wave of decline. The formation of the main market bottom in the cycle is highly likely to occur in the last quarter of 2026 (Q4).

Cowen, who describes bears as “waiting bulls,” stated that if lower levels are seen later in the year, it should not be viewed as mocking the bulls but as an opportunity to position oneself.

Referring to his own analysis strategy, Cowen said, “I won’t change my mind at every small rally. But by the time we reach the last quarter of the year (Q4), you’ll see my tone change significantly. That’s when I’ll start to be much more optimistic about Bitcoin,” he concluded.

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