May 29 $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis

🤯 News:
Yesterday, Bitcoin continued to decline due to geopolitical tensions (such as the residual effects of US-Iran related events) and macro risk appetite, causing prices to fall back. Overall market risk aversion remains strong; while traditional markets showed some performance, the crypto market remains under pressure.

Positive aspects: Some political events (such as Crypto PACs activities) and the advancement of regulatory clarification bills provide long-term benefits.

Negative aspects: Geopolitical conflicts push up oil prices and increase safe-haven demand, putting Bitcoin, as a risk asset, under pressure. Overall sentiment is cautious, with the Fear & Greed index at a relatively low level.

Short-term impact: The news sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish, lacking strong catalysts to push for a breakout.

🤯 Capital:
Around May 28, ETF daily net outflows were approximately $733 million (some data points suggest BlackRock IBIT and others leading), with continuous outflow pressure over multiple days/weeks. In total, some periods in 2026 have seen net outflows of tens of billions of dollars.

Perpetual contract funding rates: Recently mostly low positive or near neutral (around 0.0085%), without extreme highs, indicating that leveraged longs are not overly crowded, but there is also a lack of strong bullish intent.

Institutional and retail funds continue to flow out, which is one of the main reasons for the price decline, similar to the seasonal pressure of “selling in May.” However, historical data shows that after outflows, there is often an accumulation phase. If ETF outflows slow down, it could signal a rebound.

🤯 Technical:
Bitcoin is in a consolidation range, with prices fluctuating around $72,600-$74,600.

The bearish trend I’ve been mentioning continues downward; yesterday’s decline was smooth. Currently, this move mainly reflects a second test on the weekly chart, and after this second test, the weekly MACD is likely to form a bullish divergence pattern.

On the daily chart, the correction has not yet bottomed out. Patience is needed to wait for the bottom. In summary, if the price does not break above $75,400 in the next three days, the outlook remains bearish.

Support: 72,500-70,800
Resistance: 75,400-76,200